000 AXNT20 KNHC 221717 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 117 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal section of Africa near 01N15W, and continues to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N122W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 75 nm on either side of the boundaries mainly west of 15W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has entered the northwest Gulf waters extending from 30N94W to 26N97W. To the east, a 1011 mb low is centered near 30N92W, with surface trough extending from the low to 26N95W. S-SW winds in the 20-25 kt range are noted ahead of the front per buoys observations. A warm front extends across the northeast Gulf from 30N89W to 27N82W. Scattered showers are noted over the northeastern portion of the basin mainly north of 27N and east of 90W. Fresh to locally strong SE winds are noted north of the warm front and it is forecast to lift northward moving inland later today. Expect for the cold front to reach from the Mississippi Delta to the Bay of Campeche tonight, from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula on Mon night, then slow somewhat on Tue passing across the Straits of Florida Tue night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow the front today with building seas of 4-5 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are then expected in the wake of the front tonight and Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh to locally strong trades across the south-central Caribbean and along the southern coast of Hispaniola through early this afternoon. Strong nocturnal trades are then expected to resume tonight along the north coast of the South America. A weakening cold front will move southeastward across the Yucatan Basin by Tuesday night, and wash out across the northwest Caribbean by mid-week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N56W, then continues to near 27N63W where it becomes stationary through 27N80W. The stationary front is expected to lift northward today with near-gale force southeast flow developing across the forecast waters north of the Bahamas on Monday, in association with a surface low that will move eastward across the southeastern United States. Presently, scattered showers and thunderstorms are rapidly developing along and near the stationary front west of about 60W, as a rather broad mid to upper-level trough over the western Atlantic provides additional instability in the vicinity of this frontal boundary. This convective activity is affecting the NW Bahamas and south-central Florida, and is expected to continue through this afternoon, before it lifts to the northwest part of the area tonight through Mon in response to a warm frontal boundary that develops there ahead of a Gulf of Mexico's cold front. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a 1030 mb high pressure located southwest of the Azores near 35N35W. A 1010 mb low pressure situated northeast of the Madeira Islands near 33N11W and is generating some showers and tstms activity. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA