000 AXNT20 KNHC 221145 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, and continues to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 02N19W, to the Equator along 30W, to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N-03N between 14W-18W, from 00N-03N between 20W-30W, and within about 150 nm N of the ITCZ axis W of 36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating stationary front extends from Fort Myers west to near 27N90W. Fresh to locally strong easterly flow continues north of the front over the NE Gulf. The remnants of the stationary front will lift back to the north as a warm front early this morning as a cold front moves across the NW Gulf. The cold front will be preceded by scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which can produce strong gusty winds. In fact, some of the buoys across the NW Gulf are now reporting sustained winds in the 20-25 kt range. The cold front will reach from the Mississippi Delta to the Bay of Campeche tonight, from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula on Mon night, then slow somewhat on Tue passing across the Straits of Florida Tue night. The front will be followed by gentle to moderate NW winds and relatively low seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh to locally strong trades across the south-central Caribbean and along the southern coast of Hispaniola through early this afternoon . Strong nocturnal trades are then expected to resume tonight along the north coast of the South America. A weakening cold front will move southeastward across the Yucatan Basin on Tue night, and wash out across the NW Caribbean by Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N56W, then continues SW to near 27N68W where it becomes stationary. The remnants of the stationary front will lift northward today with near gale force southeast flow developing across the forecast waters north of the Bahamas on Mon and Mon night in association with a surface low that will move eastward across the southeastern United States. Presently, scattered showers and thunderstorms are rapidly developing along and near the stationary front west of about 65W as a rather broad mid to upper level trough over the western Atlantic provides additional instability in the vicinity of the stationary frontal boundary. This convective activity is affecting the NW Bahamas and south- central Florida, and is expected to continue through this afternoon, before it lifts to the northwest part of the area tonight through Mon in response to a warm frontal boundary that develops there ahead of a Gulf of Mexico cold front. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a 1031 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores near 34N35W. A 1009 mb low pressure situated NE of the Madeira Islands near is generating some showers ans tstms activity. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ GR