000 AXNT20 KNHC 220528 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 128 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, curving to 04N16W and 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 02N19W, to the Equator along 30W, to 45W from the Equator to 01S. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 05N southward from 14W westward, and from 08N southward elsewhere westward to 60W. scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are from 01N to 02.5N from 04W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, to the eastern coast of Florida near 27N80W, to 26N87W, and 26N89W. The remainder of the stationary front, that part that is in the western Gulf of Mexico, is dissipating along 26N89W beyond 29N95W, and inland at the coast of Texas. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, is moving through the eastern sections of Texas. Upper level NW wind flow moves from Texas, through the Gulf of Mexico, and then beyond it, into the NW part of Costa Rica. The NW wind flow is on the western side of an upper level trough, whose cyclonic wind flow eventually covers parts of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, much of the Caribbean Sea, and the Atlantic Ocean from 60W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover parts of the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, and between 84W and 90W. A cold front will reach the Texas coast early on Sunday, preceded by a pre-frontal squall line. The cold front will reach from the Mississippi Delta to the Bay of Campeche on Sunday night, from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night, and then slow down in its forward speed somewhat on Tuesday passing across the Straits of Florida on Tuesday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough cuts across NW Cuba into the NW sections of Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 13N southward from 74W westward. Earlier rainshowers that were covering the coastal areas and some inland areas of Colombia and NW Venezuela, have weakened and dissipated for the moment. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are in Colombia and Venezuela, from 06N to 10N in Lake Maracaibo, 70W and 75W. The Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, from Jamaica and 18N northward, from 52W westward in the Atlantic Ocean is covered by isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers, that are in the area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow of the NW Cuba-to-Costa Rica trough. Atlantic Ocean high pressure will maintain fresh-to-locally strong trade winds across the south central Caribbean Sea, and along the southern coast of Hispaniola, through early Sunday. Strong nocturnal trade winds are expected to resume on Sunday night along the north coast of the South America. A weakening cold front will pass southeastward through the Yucatan Basin on Tuesday night, and wash out across the NW Caribbean Sea during the middle of the next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N56W, to 29N63W, to 27N70W. The front becomes stationary, and it continues from 27N70W, to 28N78W, and then across Florida just to the north of Lake Okeechobee, and into the Gulf of Mexico. The Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, from Jamaica and 18N northward, from 52W westward in the Atlantic Ocean is covered by isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers, that are in the area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow of the NW Cuba-to-Costa Rica trough. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 33N13W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 30W eastward. A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 35N13W. A frontal boundary is inland in northern sections of Africa. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N42W. Weak cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 40W and 51W. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. The current frontal boundary will lift northward on Sunday. Near- gale force SE wind flow is forecast to develop across the forecast waters north of the Bahamas on Monday, in association with a surface low pressure center that will be shifting eastward across the southeast United States. The surface low will move northeastward along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Tuesday, and drag a a couple of weak cold fronts across the northwest waters during the middle of the next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT