000 AXNT20 KNHC 220005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N12W to 05N16W and 01N21W. The ITCZ continues from 01N21W to 03N40W to 04N48W, and to coastal sections of Brazil and French Guiana near 04N52W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 09N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends west from Tampa Bay Florida to 28N93W. Fresh to locally strong easterly flow continues north of the front. The stationary front will move north tonight as a weak warm front ahead of a cold front reaching the Texas coast around sunrise on Sun preceded by a pre-frontal squall line. The cold front will reach from the Mississippi Delta to the Bay of Campeche on Sun night, reach from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula on Mon night, then slow somewhat on Tue passing through the Straits of Florida late Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough cuts across NW Cuba into the NW sections of Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from 13N southward from 77W westward. widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the coastal areas of Colombia, from its border with Panama to northern sections of Colombia, and into the coastal plains and some interior sections of NW Venezuela. Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh to locally strong trades across the south-central Caribbean and along the southern coast of Hispaniola through early Sun. Strong nocturnal trades are then expected to resume on Sun night along the north coast of the South America. A weakening cold front will pass southeast through the Yucatan Basin on Tue night, and wash out across the northwest Caribbean during the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is analyzed from 31N62W to 28N80W. The front becomes stationary from that point west extending across the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are noted along the front. A pre- frontal trough extends from 29N63W to 27N78W with scattered moderate convection affecting the northern Bahamas. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1031 mb high located near 35N36W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 34N14W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 30W eastward. A 1009 mb low pressure center is near 35N12W. A frontal boundary is inland in northern sections of Africa. No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. Remnants of the cold front/stationary front, that is extending southwestward from 29N65W to central Florida, will lift north on Sun with near gale force southeast flow developing across the forecast waters north of the Bahamas on Mon in association with a surface low shifting east across the southeast United States. The surface low will move northeast along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Tue, and drag a a couple of weak cold fronts across the northwest waters during the middle of next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT