000 AXNT20 KNHC 211727 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 127 PM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 06N10W and extends to 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02N18W to 00N43W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted along and south of the monsoon trough mainly east of 12W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 75 nm on either side of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the basin from 28N96W to 26N90W to 27N82W. The front will weaken today, with its remnants lifting northward this afternoon, ahead of a cold front that is expected to reach the Texas coast by early on Sunday. This front will be preceded by a line of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The cold front will reach from the Mississippi Delta to the Bay of Campeche on Sunday night, from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night, and then move slowly southeastward on Tuesday, and eventually move away from the area by Wednesday evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, spans the entire area. The trough cuts across central Cuba, toward the Gulf of Uraba of Colombia. Lingering rainshowers cover the area that extends from Nicaragua near 13N northward to the Bahamas near 24N between 68W/eastern sections of Hispaniola and 88W in parts of Central America. Low level cyclonic wind flow prevails in the SW Caribbean enhancing scattered moderate convection mainly south of 11N between 78W-84W. Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean Sea through early Sunday. Strong nocturnal trade winds then are expected to resume on Sunday night along the northern coast of the South America. Northeast swell, currently across the tropical waters that are to the east of the Leeward Islands, will subside gradually through this evening. A weakening cold front will pass across the Yucatan Basin on Tuesday night, and wash out across the northwestern Caribbean Sea by mid-week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is analyzed from 31N62W to 28N80W. The front becomes stationary from that point west extending across the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are noted along the front. A pre- frontal trough extends from 29N63W to 27N78W with scattered moderate convection affecting the northern Bahamas. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1031 mb high located near 35N36W. The front over the west Atlantic will become stationary by tonight. Remnants of the front will lift northward on Sunday. Near-gale force southeast wind flow will develop north of the Bahamas on Monday, to the east of a surface low that will shift eastward across the southeastern United States. The surface low will move northeastward along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Tuesday, and drag a cold front across the northwest waters during the middle part of next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA