000 AXNT20 KNHC 211013 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 613 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area that is called: MADEIRA. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W and extends to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from 03N19W, crossing the Equator along 27W, to 01S34W, and 01S40W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of the ITCZ within 30 nm of line from 02N31W to 02N36W to 02N41W, and within 30 nm of 02N20W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm S of trough between 16W-20W, and S of the trough within 60 nm of 02N14W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from central Florida out over the far eastern gulf from the Tampa Bay area to 26N91W, where it transitions to a warm front to inland Mexico near Corpus Christi. The front will weaken through this morning, with its remnants lifting northward as a warm front this afternoon, ahead of a cold front that is expected to reach the Texas coast early on Sunday. This front will be preceded by a line of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The cold front will reach from the Mississippi Delta to the Bay of Campeche on Sunday night, from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night, and then move slowly southeastward on Tuesday, and eventually being southeast of area by Wednesday evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, spans the entire area. The trough cuts across central Cuba, toward the Gulf of Uraba of Colombia. Lingering rainshowers cover the area that extends from Nicaragua near 13N northward to the Bahamas near 24N between 68W/eastern sections of Hispaniola and 88W in parts of Central America. Surface-to-low level cyclonic wind flow is in the SW corner of the area. rainshowers are possible from 15N southward from 76W westward. Other rainshowers are possible from 77W eastward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 21/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.17 in Guadeloupe. Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean Sea through early Sunday. Strong nocturnal trade winds then are expected to resume on Sunday night along the northern coast of the South America. Northeast swell, currently across the tropical waters that are to the east of the Leeward Islands, will subside gradually through Saturday evening. A weakening cold front will pass across the Yucatan Basin on Tuesday night, and wash out across the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is analyzed from just to the east of Bermuda southwestward to 30N71W and to 29N76W, where it becomes stationary to Cape Canaveral and to across central Florida to the Gulf of Mexico near Tampa Bay. A surface trough is within 150 nm to 210 nm to the southeast of the cold front. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of line from 27N71W to 26.5N72W, and within 30 nm of line from 27N73W to 27N75W. Similar convection is within 60 nm southeast of the trough E of 64W, and east of the trough within 30 nm of 27N66W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible elsewhere from 25N to 28N between 64W-70W. The cold front portion of the above mentioned front will become stationary E to W along 26N by tonight. Remnants of this front will lift northward on Sunday. Near gale force southeast wind flow will develop north of the Bahamas on Monday, to the east of a surface low that will shift eastward across the southeastern United States. The surface low will move northeastward along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Tuesday, and drag a cold front across the northwest waters during the middle part of next week. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 34N15W, or about 300 nm to the north of the Canary Islands. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 22N northward from 30W eastward. A 1006 mb low pressure system is located near 34N14W, with its associated frontal boundaries extending from the low to inland northern sections of Africa. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT/Aguirre