000 AXNT20 KNHC 210515 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 115 AM EDT Sat Apr 21 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO- MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area that is called: MADEIRA. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 05N15W, and 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 02N19W, crossing the Equator along 26W, to 01S34W, and 01S40W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are within 100 nm to the east of the line that runs from the Equator along 04W, to 02N07W, and 04N08W. scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 30 nm on either side of the line 03N26W 02N31W 02N34W 02N41W, and from 05N to 06N between 49W and 54W. isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through 29N78W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 28N82W in Florida, to 26N90W in the central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of NE Mexico near 26N97W. rainshowers are possible from 25N northward. The upper level wind flow is broad westerly. The front will weaken through this morning, with its remnants lifting northward as a warm front this afternoon, ahead of a cold front that is expected to reach the Texas coast early on Sunday. This front will be preceded by a line of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The cold front will reach from the Mississippi Delta to the Bay of Campeche on Sunday night, from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night, and then move slowly southeastward on Tuesday, and eventually being southeast of area by Wednesday evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, spans the entire area. The trough cuts across central Cuba, toward the Gulf of Uraba of Colombia. Lingering rainshowers cover the area that extends from Nicaragua near 13N northward to the Bahamas near 24N between 68W/eastern sections of Hispaniola and 88W in parts of Central America. Surface-to-low level cyclonic wind flow is in the SW corner of the area. rainshowers are possible from 15N southward from 76W westward. Other rainshowers are possible from 77W eastward. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 21/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.17 in Guadeloupe. Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds across the south-central Caribbean Sea through early Sunday. Strong nocturnal trade winds then are expected to resume on Sunday night along the northern coast of the South America. Northeast swell, currently across the tropical waters that are to the east of the Leeward Islands, will subside gradually through Saturday evening. A weakening cold front will pass across the Yucatan Basin on Tuesday night, and wash out across the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes just to the east of Bermuda, to 30N71W, to 29N78W. The front is stationary from 29N78W beyond 28N83W on the Florida west coast. The stationary front eventually continues into the central Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is from 150 nm to 210 nm to the SE of the cold front. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 120 nm on either side of the line that passes through 32N59W to 28N66W to 26N70W. rainshowers are possible from 26N to 27N between 74W and 77W. The current cold front extends from just east of Bermuda, southwestward to 29N77W, where it becomes stationary to Cape Canaveral Florida. The cold front part of the front will become stationary E to W along 26N on Saturday night. Remnants of this front will lift northward on Sunday. Near gale force southeast wind flow will develop north of the Bahamas on Monday, to the east of a surface low that will shift eastward across the southeastern United States. The surface low will move northeastward along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Tuesday, and drag a cold front across the northwest waters during the middle part of next week. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 34N15W, about 300 nm to the north of the Canary Islands. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 22N northward from 30W eastward. A 1006 mb low pressure is near 35N14W. A frontal boundary is inland in northern sections of Africa. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT