000 AXNT20 KNHC 201738 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 138 PM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough along the coast of Africa near 09N13W extends southwestward to 00N22W. The ITCZ continues westward from 00N22W to the coast of South America near 01S45W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01S-02N between 30W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from N Florida near 28N83W to the central Gulf of Mexico near 26N90W, continuing thereafter as a stationary front to NE Mexico near 25N97W. The front is associated with very little precipitation, but may spark some isolated showers along the frontal boundary through the night tonight. A surface trough is located in the Bay of Campeche and has some convective activity associated with it, within the western half of the bay. Expect the front to become stationary between the Florida Keys and NE Mexico later this evening. Visibility will remain unrestricted across the Gulf. The front will drift north over the western Gulf as a warm front by later this evening. Fresh to strong easterly winds are expected over the northeastern Gulf into Sat as high pressure builds north of the area behind the front. The front will weaken across Florida and the eastern Gulf on Sat, possibly returning northward as a warm front on Sunday, ahead of another cold front that will emerge off the Texas coast late Sat night/early Sun morning. This second cold front will reach from the Mississippi Delta to the Bay of Campeche on Sun night, from the Florida Big bend coastline to the Yucatan Peninsula on Mon night, then drift southeast on Tue and move southeast of the gulf waters late Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper trough over the Caribbean is aiding the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across over N Colombia and NW Venezuela, with fresh to strong NE to E surface winds persisting off their respective coasts, along with 10 to 12 ft seas. Otherwise, moderate winds and seas accompanied by dry conditions persist across the basin. For the forecast, high pressure building in north of the area will maintain fresh to locally strong tradewind flow along the north coast of South America and central Caribbean Sea today, then diminish somewhat late this weekend into early next week. Northeasterly swell will continue to increase east of the Leewards this evening, then decay from west to east through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front will continue to move off the eastern Florida coast today and reach from near Bermuda to south Florida by late today, then stall from 28N65W to the Straits of Florida by late Sat. Remnants of the front will lift northward on Sun ahead of another cold front that will move eastward across the southeastern United States late Mon and enter the northwest waters by late Tue. Farther east, a large 1034 mb high over the central Atlantic near 34N37W is producing moderate to fresh trade winds over the deep tropics. Large long period northerly swell persists, with 10 to 14 ft seas covering the region north of 20N east of 50W, and 8 to 12 ft seas present north of 12N and east of 55W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Manougian