000 AXNT20 KNHC 190007 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 807 PM EDT Wed Apr 18 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 04N22W. The ITCZ continues from 04N22W to 02N40W to 00N50W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02S-06N between 10W-30W. Similar convection is from 04N-08N between 42w-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is presently within 30 nm of the Texas coast moving SE. Broken overcast low clouds are within 30 nm of the front. A 1021 mb high is located off the Florida Atlantic coast near 28N79W. The entire Gulf of Mexico has 05-15 kt southerly flow. Seas are 3 to 6 ft over the W Gulf, W of 90W. Seas are 1 to 3 ft over the E Gulf. No shower or thunderstorm activity is noted over the Gulf. The cold front will enter the NW Gulf tonight and stall over southern Florida to south Texas on Friday, before lifting back northward as a warm front on Saturday ahead of yet another late- season cold front that will be moving out of the southwestern U.S. and into Texas. The second front is expected to move across the northwestern Gulf by late Saturday, and reach from near the western Florida panhandle to the SW Gulf Sunday night. A warm front will extend eastward along the northeast Gulf coast out ahead of the cold front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Isolated moderate convection is presently noted over E Cuba, Jamaica, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and N Colombia. Otherwise, generally fair weather conditions and little or no shower activity are noted elsewhere across the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Swells to near 8 ft continue east of Windward Islands, while brisk easterly trade wind flow continues within 150 nm north of the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia. A weak surface trough located over the Mona Passage is expected to become diffuse across eastern Hispaniola by Thursday. Fresh to strong winds currently over the southern Caribbean will continue through late week, and expand north and westward into the southwestern Caribbean late Wed through late Fri as high pressure builds to the north across the Atlantc. These winds are expected to weaken Saturday afternoon, before pulsing back up to fresh to strong Sat night into Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal boundary near 32N60W extends southwestward to the southern Bahamas and Turks/Caicos Islands. The southern portion of the frotnal system will stall and weaken. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front. Seas of 8 to 10 ft continue north of 26N and west of front to 75W in NW swell. Seas in open waters are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except 2 to 4 ft off northeast Florida. The southern portion of the front should dissipate tonight, becoming diffuse on Friday. The next cold front will move into the western Atlantic from Florida late Thursday, reaching from Bermuda to south Florida by late Fri, then stall from near 25N65W to the Straits of Florida by late Sat. East winds will gradually increase to 20 kt over much of the waters west of 65W. Farther east, a 1030 mb high was located over the central Atlantic near 33N43W. The tail-end of a dissiapting cold front is located over the far east Atlantic from 32N17W to 29N25W. A large area of NW swell with wave heights of 08-15 ft will accompany this front covering a large portion of the area north of 20N and east of 45W through Friday. Seas will gradually subside to below 8 ft Saturday into Sunday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa