000 AXNT20 KNHC 172359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 759 PM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 09N14W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 03N30W to the coast of South America near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection within 60 nm either side of monsoon trough and ITCZ axes east of 21W and west of 39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 mb high centered over the north-east Gulf near 29N 85W, continues to produce generally fair weather with mostly clear skies across the basin. 10-15 kt anticyclonic surface winds are over the Gulf with seas building to 7 ft over the west Gulf. Over the southeastern Gulf, seas remain 4 to 6 ft due to lingering NW swell following yesterday's frontal passage. Visibility is unrestricted across the Gulf. The 1023 mb high will shift eastward and weaken through mid week ahead of the next cold front that will move into the northern Gulf on Thursday. The front should stall from southwestern Florida to south Texas Fri, before lifting north as a warm front over Texas on Saturday. Another late-season cold front will be approaching the northwestern Gulf on Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from the northwestern Caribbean near 19N83W to Honduras near 14N86W. Scattered light showers are south of 19N and west of 84W. Another trough is over east Cuba along 76W. Isolated moderate convection is Cuba east of 78W. Fresh to strong north to northeasterly winds continue west of this trough., especially in the Gulf of Honduras where seas are near 8 ft. Brisk easterly trade winds of 20-25 kt continue just off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela. Farther east, a broad mid to upper-level trough moving eastward across the Lesser Antilles and into the tropical Atlantic has suppressed shower activity in its wake over the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. A surface trough west of the Lesser Antilles is producing enhanced low cloudiness and perhaps a few light showers. NE to E swell to 8 ft continue in the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands. The trough over east Cuba is expected to dissipate by tonight. The trough over the eastern Caribbean will move westward through Hispaniola and dissipate through mid week. A building ridge north of the region will cause the area of winds and seas off Colombia and Venezuela to expand in coverage across the south-central Caribbean and into the southwestern Caribbean by late Wednesday through late Friday. Strong winds are expected to continue off the coast of Colombia through late Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front reaches from 32N65W to the south Bahamas. Scattered showers and a isolated thunderstorms have been decreasing in both coverage and intensity due to a strong upper-level trough lifting out to the north of the area. Moderate W to SW winds are noted north of 29N and within 120 nm either side of the front. Seas are 8 to 11 ft north of 30N west of 62W. Elsewhere over open waters, seas are generally 5 to 7 ft. The front should stall and weaken from 32N63W to south Bahamas by late Wed, then dissipate on Thu as it lifts northward. Another cold front will move off the Florida east coast late Thu and extend from Bermuda to south Florida by late Fri, before stalling from 25N65W to the Straits of Florida by late Sat. Farther east, ridging north of 22N between 45W and 65W will erode tonight, eventually giving way to the next approaching cold front that will be arriivng from the north-central Atlantic. This front will move east of 35W on Wed, accompanied by a large area of NW swell with wave heights of 8-15 ft covering a large portion of the area north of 20N and east of 45W Wed through Friday. Sea will gradually decay to below 8 ft through Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa