000 AXNT20 KNHC 171701 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 100 PM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N10W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 02N30W to 03N31W to 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection within 60 nm either side of monsoon trough and ITCZ axes east of 25W and west of 39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023-mb high pressure, centered over the north-central Gulf near 28.5N 88W, continues to produce generally fair weather with mostly clear skies across the basin. Moderate to fresh SE to S return flow is occurring over the west-central and northwestern Gulf between the 1023-mb high and lower pressure developing over the southern Plains and northern Mexico, with seas building to 7 ft. Over the southeastern Gulf, seas remain 4 to 6 ft due to lingering NW swell following yesterday's frontal passage. Visibility is unrestricted across the Gulf. The 1023-mb high will shift eastward and weaken through mid week ahead of the next cold front that will move into the northern Gulf on Thursday. The front should stall from southwestern Florida to south Texas Fri, before lifting north as a warm front over Texas on Saturday. Another late-season cold front will be approaching the northwestern Gulf on Sunday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating stationary front and broad surface trough extend across the northwestern Caribbean from central Cuba southwestward to north-eastern Honduras. Scattered light showers were occuring adjacent to and north of the northern coast of Honduras for 120 nm. Fresh to strong north to northeasterly winds continue west of the front, especially in the Gulf of Honduras where seas are near 8 ft. Brisk easterly trade winds of 20-25 kt continue just off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela. Farther east, a broad mid- to upper-level trough moving eastward across the Lesser Antilles and into the tropical Atlantic has suppressed shower activity in its wake over the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. A surface trough west of the Lesser Antilles is producing enhanced low cloudiness and perhaps a few light showers. NE to E swell to 8 ft continue in the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Windward Islands. The front is expected to dissipate by tonight. The trough over the eastern Caribbean will move westward through Hispaniola and dissipate through mid week. A building ridge north of the region will cause the area of winds and seas off Colombia and Venezuela to expand in coverage across the south-central Caribbean and into the southwestern Caribbean by late Wednesday through late Friday. Strong winds are expected to continue off the coast of Colombia through late Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front reaches from 31N68W to the southeastern Bahamas. Scattered showers and a isolated thunderstorms have been decreasing in both coverage and intensity due to a strong upper- level trough lifting out to the north of the area. Moderate W to SW winds are noted north of 29N and within 120 nm either side of the front. Seas are 8 to 11 ft north of 30N west of 68W. Elsewhere over open waters, seas are generally 5 to 7 ft. The fronts will merge later today and continue eastward. The frontal system will slow as it reaches from Bermuda to eastern Cuba late today. The front should stall and weaken from 28N65W to central Cuba by late Wed, then dissipate on Thu as it lifts northward. Another cold front will move off the Florida east coast late Thu and extend from Bermuda to south Florida by late Fri, before stalling from 25N65W to the Straits of Florida by late Sat. Farther east, ridging north of 22N between 45W and 65W will erode today, eventually giving way to the next approaching cold front that will be arriivng from the north-central Atlantic. The front will move east of 35W on Wed, accompanied by a large area of NW swell with wave heights of 8-15 ft covering a large portion of the area north of 20N and east of 45W Wed through Friday. Sea will gradually decay to below 8 ft through Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA/Stewart