000 AXNT20 KNHC 170535 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 06N11W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 02N31W to 00N37W. No significant convection is noted at this time. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure and generally fair weather prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered in the northern Gulf near 27N92W. Seas are 2-4 ft in the NW Gulf, and 5-7 ft in the SE part of the region. The high will shift eastward across the northern Gulf through Wed. Southerly return flow will increase in the western Gulf Tue and Wed as the ridge shifts east. A weak cold front will reach the northern Gulf Thu, then stall and dissipate Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating stationary front is across the NW Caribbean from central Cuba to northern Honduras. Some showers are noted near the front, but are steadily diminishing in intensity and areal extent tonight. A surface trough west of the Lesser Antilles and diffluent flow aloft from an upper trough is enhancing clouds and showers in the Windward Islands. Media sources on Martinique reported small hail Monday in scattered thunderstorms from this disturbance. The front will slowly weaken then dissipate through Tue night, with fresh northerly winds NW of the front. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will continue across most of the basin the next few days. Fresh to strong east winds will pulse each night off the coast of northern Colombia with seas to 9 ft. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 32N71W across the Bahamas to central Cuba. Widely scattered showers are noted within 180 nm east of the front. Fresh northerly winds prevail west of the front, with seas generally 6 to 10 ft. A broad area of high pressure extends across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 32N55W. The ridge is supporting light winds north of 25N, and moderate to fresh trades south of 25N. NE swell of 7-8 ft is located south of 20N and E of 55W. The front will slowly weaken then dissipate through Wed. Winds behind the cold front will diminish Tue and Wed as high pressure shifts into the western Atlantic. The mid-Atlantic ridge will shift east later today ahead of a reinforcing cold front that will move into the central Atlantic. This front will slide east of 35W Wed, producing a large area of NW swell with wave heights of 8-15 ft covering a large portion of the area north of 20N and east of 45W Wed and Thu. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell