000 AXNT20 KNHC 170000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 07N12W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 03N30W to 00N37W. No significant convection is noted at this time. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure and generally fair weather prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered along the coast of Louisiana near 30N93W. Seas are 2-4 ft in the NW part of the area, and 5-8 ft SE of a line from western Florida to Veracruz Mexico. The high will shift eastward across the northern Gulf through Wed. Southerly return flow will increase in the western Gulf Tue and Wed as the ridge shifts east. A weak cold front will reach the northern Gulf Thu, then stall and dissipate Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front is across the NW Caribbean from central Cuba to northern Honduras. Some showers are noted near the front, but steadily diminishing in intensity and areal extent this evening. Moderate to fresh easterly winds continue across most of the basin. Fresh to strong east winds will pulse each night off the coast of northern Colombia with seas to 9 ft. Altimeter data shows 5-8 ft seas occurring over the remainder of the basin. The front will slowly weaken then dissipate through Tue night, with a few showers, and fresh northerly winds NW of the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N73W across the Bahamas to central Cuba. Widely scattered showers are noted within 120 to 180 nm east of the front. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds prevail west of the front, with seas generally 7 to 10 ft. A broad area of high pressure extends across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 31N55W. The ridge is supporting light winds north of 25N, and moderate to fresh trades south of 25N. NE swell of 7-10 ft is located south of 20N and E of 55W. The front will slowly weaken then dissipate through Wed. Winds behind the front will diminish Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure becomes centered over the western Atlantic. The ridge will shift east tonight ahead of a reinforcing cold front that will move into the central Atlantic on Tuesday. The second front will slide east of 35W Wednesday, followed by a large area of NW swell with wave heights of 8-15 ft covering a large portion of the area north of 20N and east of 45W Wednesday and Thursday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell