000 AXNT20 KNHC 161721 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 121 PM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of western Africa near 09N14W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to 02N50W. No significant convection is noted at this time. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridge prevails across the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 30N93W. With this, fair weather prevails across the whole area, with seas ranging between 4-6 ft west of 90W and 8-10 east of 90W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds are noted in scatterometer data and surface observations across the Gulf waters. The high pressure will shift westward across the northern Gulf through mid week. Southerly return flow will increase over the northwest Gulf Tue into Wed as the ridge shifts east. A weaker cold front will drift into the northern Gulf Thu then stall and dissipate through Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends across the west Caribbean from 22N81W to 16N88W. Scattered showers are noted within 75 nm to the east of the front affecting central Cuba and Cayman Islands at this time. Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail across most of the basin as indicated by a recent scatterometer pass. Fresh to strong east winds are pulsing every night/early morning off the northeast Colombia coast with seas building to 9 ft. Altimeter data depicts 5-8 ft seas occurring over the remainder of the basin. The cold front will stall from central Cuba to central Honduras late tonight, before dissipating through late Tuesday. Scattered showers will continue to progress eastward ahead of the cold front today. Strong NW winds will follow the front from the coast of Quintana Roo in the Yucatan to the Gulf of Honduras. These conditions will diminish tonight. Elsewhere, the fresh to strong trade winds will continue to pulse over the south central Caribbean through late this week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N75W to 23N80W. Scattered showers are noted within 150 nm to the east of the front affecting the north and central Bahamas. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds prevail in the wake of the front, with seas ranging between 8-11 ft. To the east, a broad area of high pressure extends across the remander of the basin anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 33N57W. The ridge is maintaining light winds north of 25N, with moderate to fresh trade winds south of 25N. NE to E swell of 7-10 ft persists south of 20N, E of 55W, as noted in recent altimeter passes. The entire front will weaken and dissipate later this week. Fresh to strong winds behind the front will diminish Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure becomes centered over the western Atlantic. The ridge will shift east today ahead of a reinforcing cold front that will move into the central Atlantic region on Tuesday. The front will slide east of 35W Wednesday, followed by a large area of NW swell with wave heights of 8 to 15 ft covering much of the area north of 20N and east of 45W Wednesday and Thursday as the swell in excess of 8 ft south of 20N subsides. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA