000 AXNT20 KNHC 160512 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 112 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Gale Warning... A E moving cold front is currently entering the west Atlantic from Florida. Gale-force winds are expected to continue north of 30N east of the front to 74W until just after sunrise, with seas ranging between 8-12 ft outside of the Bahamas. For more details, please refer to the High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of western Africa near 10N13W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 01N35W to 02N51W. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 03N to 08N between 08W and 19W, and from 00N to 04N between 32W and 51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong northerly winds cover the eastern Gulf following a late season cold front that extends from 27N82W to 21N86W. Seas range between 8-13 ft within about 300 nm W of the front, with the 13 ft observation over the central Gulf measured by buoy 42001 earlier tonight. High pressure has built over the western Gulf behind the front, with a 1022 high center near 24N96W. This high supports gentle to moderate winds over the western Gulf this morning. The front will continue moving east across the remainder of the southeastern Gulf through the early morning. Winds and seas will diminish through today as high pressure continues to build east across the basin. The center of the high pressure ridge will reach the NE Gulf by mid week, which will help to induce fresh to strong SE return flow will over the northwest Gulf by late Tuesday between the ridge and lower pressure over the southern Plains. A weaker cold front is forecast to stall and dissipate over the northern Gulf Thursday. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail across most of the basin as indicated by a recent scatterometer pass. Fresh to strong east winds are likely occurring off northeast Colombia with seas to 9 ft. Altimeter data are indicating 5-8 ft seas are occurring elsewhere over the basin. A cold front is now entering the NW Caribbean, extending from 22N85W to 20N88W. Scattered thunderstorms are within 150 nm east of the front. A surface trough over the Gulf of Honduras supports clusters of thunderstorms S of 18N and W of 85W. The cold front stall from central Cuba to central Honduras late tonight, before dissipating through late Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to progress SE ahead of the cold front through today. Strong NW winds will follow the front from the coast of Quintana Roo in the Yucatan to the Gulf of Honduras, before diminishing tonight. Elsewhere, the fresh to strong trade winds will continue to pulse near the coast over the south central Caribbean through late this week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Gale-force winds are expected to continue over the west Atlantic N of 30N, E of the front until just after sunrise this morning. Please refer to the Special Features section above for more details. Strong to near gale-force southerly winds are occurring elsewhere W of 75W N of 26N, E of a cold front that is now beginning to emerge off the coast of N Florida. A pre- frontal squall line as of 0300 UTC extends from 31N78W to 24N80W. Gusty, shifting winds and numerous thunderstorms will accompany this squall line as it moves east over the western Atlantic waters through today. The rest of the front will reach the E coast of central and S Florida late tonight, then reach from 31N70W to central Cuba late Monday night. The southern portion will then stall from 25N70W to E Cuba Tuesday, with the north portion stalling from 31N60W to 25N67W on Wednesday. The entire front will then weaken and dissipate later this week. Fresh to strong winds behind the front will diminish Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure becomes centered over the western Atlantic. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails across the basin anchored by a 1029 mb high near 33N59W. The only exception is a frontal trough that is over the central Atlantic, extending from 31N30W to 29N35W, void of convection. The ridge is maintaining light winds north of 25N, with moderate to fresh trade winds south of 25N. NE to E swell of 7-10 ft persists south of 20N, E of 55W, as noted in recent altimeter passes. The ridge will shift east today ahead of a reinforcing cold front that will move into the central Atlantic region Tuesday. The front will slide east of 35W Wednesday, followed by a large area of NW swell with wave heights of 8 to 15 ft covering much of the area north of 20N and east of 45W Wednesday and Thursday as the swell in excess of 8 ft south of 20N subsides. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Latto