000 AXNT20 KNHC 151058 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 658 AM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Winds reaching minimal gale force winds are ongoing along the coast of Veracruz Mexico following a late season cold front extending from near Mobile Bay to the southwest Gulf near 18.5N93W. A recent altimeter satellite pass showed seas are reaching 13 ft in the area of gale force winds. The gale force winds will diminish early this morning as high pressure builds over the western Gulf in the wake of the front. For more details please refer to the High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of western Africa near 10N14W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 02N50W near the mouth of the Amazon River. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 190 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis between 17W and 45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for more information on gale force winds in the Gulf of Mexico. Strong winds follow a late season cold front extending from Mobile Bay to the southwest Gulf near 18.5N93W. A line of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the front north of 25N, moving eastward across the northeast Gulf. Seas of 10 to 15 ft are noted over the western Gulf in the wake of the front supporting by strong northerly winds. The exception is over the fetch limited far northwest Gulf where seas are 3 to 5 ft over coastal waters and 5 to 7 ft farther offshore. The front sweeps southeast of the Gulf through tonight. Winds and seas diminish into Mon as high pressure builds across the basin and persists through mid week. Fresh to strong SE return flow will set up over the northwest Gulf by late Tue between the ridge and lower pressure over the southern Plains. A weaker cold front is forecast to stall and dissipate over the northern Gulf Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong SE winds are ongoing over the northeast and south central Caribbean ahead of a late season cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. Recent scatterometer passes indicate fresh to strong E to SE winds off northeast Colombia and near the Gulf of Honduras. Seas over the south central Caribbean are likely 8 to 10 ft, with 5 to 8 ft elsewhere. A recent altimeter satellite pass showed NE to E swell over the tropical Atlantic has largely decayed below 8 ft. No significant convection is observed at this time. The cold front will enter the NW Caribbean late today, and stall from central Cuba to central Honduras by early Mon, before dissipating through late Tue. The strong E to SE winds off Honduras will diminish as the ridge north of the area shifts eastward ahead of the front. But strong NW winds will follow the front from the coast of Quintana Roo to the Gulf of Honduras, before diminishing Mon. Elsewhere, the fresh to strong trade winds will continue to pulse near the coast over the south central Caribbean through mid week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure northeast of the area is supporting pulses of fresh to strong trade winds off Hispaniola, as noted in recent scatterometer imagery and ship observations. The strong winds are noted mainly along the northern coast of Haiti as far west as the approaches to the Windward Passage. Recent buoy and altimeter data show seas of 8 to 9 ft south of 22N and east of the Turks and Caicos. SE to S winds are starting to increase to fresh to strong W of 75W ahead of a cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast late this afternoon, then increase to minimal gale force west and east of the front north of 30N tonight. Winds will diminish Mon as the front moves east and reaches from 30N72W to central Cuba Mon evening, and from Bermuda to eastern Cuba late Tue, then lifting north to 25N and dissipating through mid week. Farther east, 1030 mb high pressure is centered near 32N57W, north of a stationary front reaching from 32N35W to 28N55W. The ridge is maintaining light winds north of 20N, with moderate to fresh trade winds south of 20N. NE to E swell of 7 to 9 ft persists south of 20N as well, as noted in recent altimeter satellite passes, reaching as far west as the Windward Islands. The front will dissipate today, and the ridge will shift east Mon ahead of a stronger reinforcing front moving into the region Tue. The front will slide east of 35W Wed, followed by a large area of NW swell with wave heights of 8 to 10 ft covering much of the area north of 20N and east of 45W Wed and Thu as the swell in excess of 8 ft south of 20N will subsides. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Christensen