000 AXNT20 KNHC 141036 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 636 AM EDT Sat Apr 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A strong cold front will move off the Texas coast later this today followed by strong NW to N winds. These winds will funnel along the coast of southern Tamaulipas and Veracruz later today, reaching gale force with seas to 12 ft. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through late Sat and overnight as the front shifts farther eastward and high pressure builds into the western Gulf. For more details please refer to the High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. The aforementioned cold front will approach the Southeastern United States Sun, with increasing southerly flow ahead of the front over the Bahamas and offshore waters east of Florida. The front will reach the Atlantic waters Sun night, with gale force winds developing north of 30N between 75W and 78W the front moves east, then diminish below gale force through early Mon. For more details please refer to the High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of western Africa near 09N13W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 07N between 10W and 13W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 25W and 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Platform and buoy observations are showing fresh to occasionally strong SE to S winds over much of the western Gulf, mainly off the Texas coast and north of Yucatan. Buoy observations and a recent altimeter satellite pass indicated seas reaching 6 to 8 ft over the northwest Gulf as well. The winds and seas are building ahead of a cold front moving through Texas this morning, expected to reach the far northwest Gulf later this morning, proceeded by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Platforms are indicated 3 to 5 nm visibility over the northwest Gulf, due in part to light smoke originating from wildfires over the northern Yucatan peninsula. Strong northerly winds will follow the front today, reaching gale force off Tampico and Veracruz by late Sat as the front reaches from western Florida Panhandle to the northwest Yucatan peninsula. The front will sweep across the southeast Gulf by late Sun. Winds and seas will diminish from west to east through Mon as high pressure builds across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front through Tue. Expect fresh SE return flow across the western Gulf by Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Ridging north of the region is supporting fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras, into the Windward Passage and off northeast Colombia. Recent observations from Roatan in the Bay Islands of the Gulf of Honduras indicate fresh to strong trades are ongoing. The ridge will persist into Sun over the western Atlantic, supporting fresh to strong trade winds and building seas in these areas as well the central Caribbean in general. The ridge will shift east ahead of a cold front moving into the northwest Caribbean late Sun, reaching from central Cuba to eastern Honduras Mon followed by strong northerly winds. This late season front will weaken through late Mon allowing winds and seas to diminish over the northwest Caribbean through Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Ridging along 32N/33N is maintaining moderate E to SE winds north of 22N, and moderate to fresh tradewinds south of 22N, except 20 to 25 kt north of Haiti and near the approaches of the Windward Passage. A recent altimeter satellite pass and a couple of nearby ship observations were showing seas 8 to 10 ft northeast of the Bahamas near 27N68W. This is likely lingering NE to E swell and should decay below 8 ft through this morning. Farther south, seas may be getting close to 8 ft near the approaches to the Windward Passage as well. Elsewhere seas are generally 5 to 7 ft in open waters. No significant showers or thunderstorms are noted. Aside from the pulses of fresh to strong winds north of Hispaniola, generally moderate SE to S winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in open waters will persist tonight into Sun across the region. The SE to S winds will increase to fresh to strong W of 75W early Sun ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast late Sun, then increase to strong to near gale force ahead of the front through Mon. Winds to gale force are possible Sun night north of 30N between 75W and 78W as the front moves through the region, reaching from 31N70W to eastern Cuba by Mon night. Winds will diminish through late Tue as the front reaches from Bermuda to the southern Bahamas. High pressure will build along 30N in the wake of the front as it stalls and weakens from 31N60W to the central Bahamas Wed, maintaining generally light winds and modest seas north of 25N, and moderate trades south of 25N, with pulses of fresh to strong trades off Hispaniola. Farther east, a 1027 mb high centered near 28N35W is maintaining light winds north of 20N, with moderate to fresh trade winds south of 20N. NE to E swell of 8 to 11 ft persists south of 20N as well, as noted in recent altimeter satellite passes, reaching as far west as the Windward Islands. A broad upper trough along 50W south of 15N is interacting with trade wind convergence along the ITCZ to support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms north of the ITCZ between 25W and 50W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Christensen