000 AXNT20 KNHC 131715 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 115 PM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of western Africa near 09N13W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 03N35W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 180 n mi north of the ITCZ between 31W and 49W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is located from 04N to 08N between 13W and 17W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... No significant shower activity is occurring across the Gulf of Mexico today as the western extension of a surface ridge and abundant dry air aloft continues to support fair weather. The surface winds are generally out of the southeast or south and are strongest over the northwestern waters, where buoys and ships are reporting 20-25 kt winds. The highest seas are estimated to be near 7 ft off the Texas and Louisiana coasts. Seas are notably lower over the eastern Gulf waters due to the lighter winds and limited fetch. Looking ahead to the weekend, a cold front is expected to move over the northwestern waters by Saturday morning. This boundary is then expected to sweep across the entire area by Sunday night, with strong northwesterly winds in its wake. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fairly quiet weather conditions are occurring over the Caribbean Sea today, with only the typical patches of clouds and embedded showers moving westward across the region. The showers appear more concentrated over the eastern Caribbean, generally north of 15N and east of 72 W. The trade wind flow is moderate due to weak ridging north of the area and strong flow is generally confined to the usual location, near the north coast of Colombia. Seas are also fairly moderate, generally 4 to 6 ft, except a little higher near the coast of Colombia. High pressure is expected to strengthen to the north of the area, this will cause winds and seas to increase by late this weekend. A late season cold front is expected to make it to the northwestern waters Sunday night or early Monday before weakening shortly thereafter. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is producing scattered showers within 120 n mi of its axis that extends from 32N50W to 27N60W. A weak trough has broken off the tail end of the front and is analyzed from 29N64W to 25N68W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring within 120 n mi east and 60 n mi west of that axis. Winds are around 20 kt just north and northwest of the trough axis due to the pressure gradient between that feature and high pressure to the north of the area. Otherwise, generally tranquil weather prevails across the remainder of the western Atlantic. Looking ahead to the weekend, southerly flow is expected to increase over the far western Atlantic waters ahead of the next cold front. This front is expected to move over the western Atlantic Sunday night and early Monday. Farther east, a 1029 mb high pressure system is centered over the eastern Atlantic near 29N34W. This high pressure is maintaining light to moderate winds north of 20N and moderate to fresh trade winds farther south over the deep tropics of the eastern Atlantic. Earlier altimeter satellite passes indicate seas of 8 to 10 ft mainly south of 20N, likely in NE to E swell. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Cangialosi