000 AXNT20 KNHC 131040 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 640 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 06N10W, to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 150 nm on either side of the boundaries between 07W-20W and within 90 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 30W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from east to west along the northern Gulf coast from Florida to Texas. Buoy and platform observations along with a recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate generally moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the basin south of the ridge. Seas are 2 to 4 ft overall. A few platforms are showing 3 to 5 nm visibility due to fog/haze over the northwest Gulf, but otherwise visibility remains unrestricted. While there are copious fires ongoing over the northern Yucatan, winds are currently too light to create large plumes to impact marine visibility over the southwest Gulf. No significant shower or thunderstorms activity is observed. The moderate to fresh E to SE flow across the Gulf will become fresh to strong Fri ahead of a late season cold front moving off the Texas coast Fri night. Strong northerly winds will follow the front, reaching gale force off Veracruz by late Sat as the front reaches from western Florida Panhandle to the northwest Yucatan peninsula. The front will sweep the southeast Gulf by late Sun. Winds and seas diminishing from west to east through Mon as high pressure builds across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front through Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... Weak ridging north of the basin is maintaining light to moderate trades winds everywhere, except for fresh winds off the coast of northeast Colombia and in the Windward Passage as noted in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in the central Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. No significant shower and thunderstorms Moderate to fresh trade winds will increase to fresh to strong with building seas across the central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras into Sun. The ridge will shift east ahead of a cold front moving into the northwest Caribbean late Sun, and reaching from central Cuba to eastern Honduras Mon followed by strong northerly winds. This late season front will weaken through late Mon allowing winds and seas to diminish over the northwest Caribbean through Tue. Farther east, NE swell in excess of 8 ft will persist east of the Leeward and Windward Islands into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 27N65W to the Straits of Florida. Light to moderate E to SE winds are noted across the area. Buoy and ship observations indicate 8 ft seas north of the front 27N east of 75W. A few showers are noted along the front near 26N66W. The front will stall along 27N today then dissipate. High pressure building in the wake of the front will support pulses of fresh to strong trade winds off Hispaniola tonight and Sat. SE winds increase to fresh to strong east of 75W early Sun ahead of a second cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast late Sun. Strong to near gale force winds and building seas will accompany the front north of 27N as it moves east, reaching from 31N70W to eastern Cuba Mon night. Winds will diminish through late Tue as the front reaches from Bermuda to the southern Bahamas, but NW swell in excess of 8 ft will persist north of 27N east of 75W. Farther east, 1028 mb high pressure is centered over the eastern Atlantic near 30N35W. The high pressure is maintaining light to moderate winds north of 20N and moderate to fresh trade winds farther south into the deep tropics of the eastern Atlantic. Recent altimeter satellite passes indicate seas of 8 to 10 ft mainly south of 20N, likely in NE to E swell. An upper trough along 50W is enhancing the scattered convection along the ITCZ east of 30W, with only a few showers elsewhere along the ITCZ and monsoon trough. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Christensen