000 AXNT20 KNHC 130532 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 132 AM EDT Fri Apr 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N11W, to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 150 nm on either side of the boundaries between 06W-24W and within 50 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 30W-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening stationary front extends across the Florida Straits along 24N and east of 84W with scattered showers. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered over the west Atlantic. Moderate easterly flow across the Gulf will become fresh to strong today ahead of a late season cold front that will move off the Texas coast tonight. Strong northerly winds will follow the front, reaching gale-force off Veracruz by late Sat as the front reaches from western Florida Panhandle to the northwest Yucatan peninsula. The front will sweep the southeast Gulf by late Sun. Winds and seas diminishing from west to east by early next week as high pressure builds across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gentle to moderate trade winds continue across the basin. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough continues from the eastern Pacific Ocean, across the border of Costa Rica and Panama, across 80W in Panama, into northern Colombia. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the trough. Scattered showers are noted across the basin, with greater coverage mainly over the Greater Antilles. Moderate to fresh trade winds will increase to fresh to strong with building seas across the central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras into Sun. The ridge will shift east ahead of a cold front moving into the northwest Caribbean late Sun, and reaching from central Cuba to eastern Honduras Mon followed by strong northerly winds. This late season front will weaken through late Mon allowing winds and seas to diminish over the northwest Caribbean through Tue. Farther east, NE swell in excess of 8 ft will persist east of the Leeward and Windward Islands into early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 31N56W to 26N63W to 25N74W, then becomes weak and stationary through 24N80W. Scattered showers are noted along and east of the cold front mainly north of 26N. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward from 70W eastward, anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 30N36W. The cold front will stall along 27N today then dissipate. High pressure building in the wake of the front will support pulses of fresh to strong trade winds off Hispaniola late today and Sat. Easterly winds will increase to fresh to strong east of 75W by early Sun ahead of a second cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast late Sun. Strong to near gale force winds and building seas will accompany the front north of 27N as it moves east, reaching from 31N70W to eastern Cuba Mon night. Winds will diminish through late Tue as the front reaches from Bermuda to the southern Bahamas, but NW swell in excess of 8 ft will persist north of 27N east of 75W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA