000 AXNT20 KNHC 120523 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 122 AM EDT Thu Apr 12 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of west Africa near 06N10W to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is found within 60 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 12W-22W and west of 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the west Atlantic across South Florida reaching the southeast Gulf waters as a weakening stationary front from 25N81W to 24N88W. Strong subsidence prevails over the basin in response to mid- to upper- level ridging building overhead from the northwest. Surface ridging prevails across the northern Gulf supporting light to gentle anticyclonic winds across most of the area. The frontal boundary will dissipate over the Straits of Florida today. A stronger cold front will move off the Texas coast by early this weekend. Fresh to strong southerly winds preceding it will become strong to near-gale from the north behind the front. Gale-force winds are possible over the southwest Gulf near Tampico and Veracruz by Sat afternoon through Sun morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gentle to moderate trades continue across the basin. Mid to upper-level ridging extending northward over the basin from South America is maintaining a fairly dry weather pattern and strong subsidence over the Caribbean. Strong nocturnal winds and seas building to between 8 and 10 feet are expected near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night through Sun night as the high pressure ridge to the north strengthens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends SW from a 1010 mb low centered near 35N63W to 25N80W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 27N71W to 25N77W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along and up to 120 nm east of the front mainly north of 25N. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a broad surface ridge, anchored by a 1030 mb high centered near 31N38W. The high is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds over the tropical Atlc west of 30W and north of the ITCZ to 28N. Light to gentle winds prevail north of 28N due to the proximity of the ridge axis. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected north of 28N near the front in the west Atlantic today. The front will slowly move southeast beyond the Bahamas through Fri night, then extend from 32N41W to 27N62W as a dissipating stationary front by Sat morning. Another cold front will be preceded by strong southerly winds that will affect the waters east of Florida by Sun night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA