000 AXNT20 KNHC 111657 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1257 PM EDT Wed Apr 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the border of Sierra Leone and Liberia on the coast of west Africa near 07N11W to 04N14W. The ITCZ continues from 04N14W to 02N20W to 01N30W to 03S39W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found within 60 nm either side of a line from 00N11W to 02N15W to 02N22W to 04N26W and within 90 nm either side of a line from 09S34W to 07S33W to 02S36W to 01S44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front crosses the basin from Ft Myers Florida near 26N82W to 23N92W, continues as a stationary front to 20N95W, then as a weakening stationary front to just NW of Veracruz near 19N97W. Virtually all of the significant deep convection over the basin has dissipated as strong subsidence sets up over the basin in response to mid- to upper-level ridging building overhead from the NW. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are observed north of the front while light and variable winds are seen over the basin south of the front. The frontal boundary is slowing down and weakening and is expected to stall over the far southeast Gulf tonight, then dissipate over the Straits of Florida Thu. Winds will continue to subside N of the front to between light and moderate and veer from the southeast as high pressure shifts east over the southern United States into the west Atlantic by Fri morning. A stronger cold front will move off the Texas coast Sat. Fresh to strong southerly winds preceding it will become strong to near gale from the north behind the front. Gale force winds are possible over the southwest Gulf near Tampico and Veracruz Sat afternoon through Sun morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gentle to moderate trades continue across the basin. Mid to upper- level ridging extending northward over the basin from South America is maintaining a fairly dry weather pattern and strong subsidence over the Caribbean. Strong nocturnal winds and seas building to between 8 and 10 feet are expected near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras Fri night through Sun night as the high pres ridge to the N strengthens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends SW from a 1012 mb low centered near 32.5N71W to Ft Lauderdale Florida near 26.5N80W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed along and up to 120 nm SE of the front N of 26N. The cold front over the northwest waters will slowly move southeast beyond the Bahamas through Fri night, then reach a position from 32N41W to 27N62W as a dissipating stationary front Sat morning. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected north of 28N near the front through Thu morning. Another cold front will be preceded by strong southerly winds that will affect the waters east of Florida by Sun night. The remainder of the basin remains under the influence of a broad surface ridge, anchored by a 1032 mb high centered SW of the Azores near 31N37W. The high is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds over the tropical Atlc W of 30W and N of the ITCZ to 28N. Winds in the region N of 28N are light to gentle due to the proximity of the ridge axis. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy