000
AXNT20 KNHC 102352
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
752 PM EDT Tue Apr 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2345 UTC. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
     
The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone on the coast of west
Africa near 08N13W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues SW from 04N21W 
to 00N29W to 04S34W to the coast of Brazil near 00N53W. Scattered
moderate convection is found south of 00N and west of 30W. 
Scattered moderate convection is exiting the Africa coast mainly
east of 12W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the northern portion of the basin from
29N83W to 25N90W to 22N97W. Areas of scattered to moderate
convection are observed in the vicinity of the front mainly east of
88W and west of 92W. Strong NE winds are observed N of the front and 
W of 93W, while winds are fresh to strong elsewhere N of the 
front. Gentle to locally moderate E to SE winds prevail over the 
basin S of the front.

The front will continue moving southeast across the basin reaching  
the southern Gulf and Straits of Florida by Wed night, then begin 
to dissipate across the Straits of Florida by Thu night. Winds N 
of the front will subside to light to moderate and veer from the 
SE as high pres shifts E over the southern United states over the 
western Atlc.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate trades continue across the basin. A fairly dry
weather pattern remains in place. Mid to upper-level ridging 
extending northwestward over the basin from South America is 
maintaining the dry weather pattern with strong subsidence noted 
over the eastern Caribbean.

Low pressure systems moving eastward from the southern U.S. into 
the western Atlantic continue to weaken the ridge north of the 
area. Strong winds and seas running between 8 and 11 ft are 
observed near the coast of northern Colombia as relatively strong 
low pres inland maintains a tight pres gradient along the coast. 
The area of low pres inland will weaken during the next couple of 
days and allow the winds and seas to subside.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends across the west Atlantic from 30N74W to
a 1016 mb low centered near 30N80W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed in the vicinity of the front mainly west of 75W. 
Elsewhere, a large 1032 mb high centered over the eastern 
Atlantic SW of the Azores near 33N33W dominates the remainder of 
the Atlc. The ridge will maintain fair weather and moderate to 
fresh trade winds over the tropical Atlc north of the ITCZ and W 
of 30W.
  
The low pressure will move across the west Atlantic dragging to
the front across the area with convection. The front will extend 
from 31N61W to the SE Bahamas near 24N75W Thu morning. The 
northern portion of the front will continue E to near 32N51W by 
Fri morning as the southern portion of the front stalls and 
weakens. The front will be accompanied by fresh to strong winds N 
of 27N and seas building to between 8 and 11 ft. Winds and seas 
will subside by Thu night as the front weakens.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

McElroy/ERA