000
AXNT20 KNHC 101706
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
106 PM EDT Tue Apr 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1430 UTC. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
     
The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone on the coast of west
Africa near 08N13W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues SW from 04N21W 
to 00N29W to 04S34W to the coast of Brazil near 00N53W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is found from 03S to 01N 
between 35W and 52W. Scattered moderate convection is present 
within 60 nm either side of a line from 01N18W to 06N21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front extends W from the Florida Big Bend near 23N83W to
low pres 1014 mb centered near 29N85W. A cold front stretches SW
from the low to N of Tampico Mexico near 24N98W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring within 60 nm on
both sides of the boundary east of 87W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is found along the coast of Mexico and
south Texas from 20N to 27N W of 95W. Strong NE winds are 
observed N of the front and W of 93W, while winds are fresh to 
strong elsewhere N of the front. Gentle to locally moderate E to 
SE winds prevail over the basin S of the front.

The front is beginning to head SE in response to a secondary push
of cold air. The reenergized front will slowly sink S into the
southern Gulf and Straits of Florida by Wed night, then begin to 
dissipate across the Straits of Florida by Thu night. Winds N of 
the front will subside to light to moderate and veer from the SE 
as high pres shifts E over the southern United states over the 
western Atlc.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate trades continue across the basin. A fairly dry
weather pattern remains in place. Mid to upper-level ridging 
extending northwestward over the basin from South America is 
maintaining the dry weather pattern with strong subsidence noted 
over the eastern Caribbean.

Low pressure systems moving eastward from the southern U.S. into 
the western Atlantic continue to weaken the ridge north of the 
area. Strong winds and seas running between 8 and 11 ft are 
observed near the coast of northern Colombia as relatively strong 
low pres inland maintains a tight pres gradient along the coast. 
The area of low pres inland will weaken during the next couple of 
days and allow the winds and seas to subside.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends SW from 32N72W, then continues as a warm 
front to Cape Canaveral Florida near 27.5N80W. No significant 
convection is seen in the vicinity of the weakening cold front. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed N 
of the front to 31N and W of 79W, while scattered moderate 
convection is taking place elsewhere along and N of the front to 
beyond 32N. Elsewhere, a large 1033 mb high centered over the 
eastern Atlantic SW of the Azores near 33N33W dominates the 
remainder of the Atlc. The ridge will maintain fair weather and 
moderate to fresh trade winds over the tropical Atlc north of the 
ITCZ and W of 30W.
  
Low pres centered over the far NE Gulf of Mexico will head ENE 
today and tonight, dragging a cold front eastward from Florida 
across the Bahamas. The cold front will extend from 31N61W to the 
SE Bahamas near 24N75W Thu morning. The northern portion of the 
front will continue E to near 32N51W by Fri morning as the 
southern portion of the front stalls and weakens. The front will 
be accompanied by fresh to strong winds N of 27N and seas building
to between 8 and 11 ft. Winds and seas will subside by Thu night 
as the front weakens.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy