000
AXNT20 KNHC 101200
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Apr 10 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America 
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America,
and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. 
The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather 
observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1100 UTC. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
     
The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone on the coast of west
Africa near 08N13W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues SW from 03N22W 
to 00N28W to the coast of Brazil near 04S42W. Scattered moderate 
and isolated strong convection is found from 03S to 00N between 
34W and 45W. Scattered moderate convection is present within 60 nm
either side of a line from 01N16W to 05N21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from N of Tampa Florida near 28N83W to
28N86W to just S of Brownsville TX near 25N98W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring along and up 
to 90 nm N of the the frontal boundary east of 89W. Otherwise, 
warm air overrunning the boundary is producing extensive 
cloudiness and patchy rain north of the front. Fresh NE winds are 
observed N of the front and E of 93W, while winds are fresh to 
strong N of the front and W of 93W. Gentle to locally moderate E 
to SE winds prevail over the basin S of the front.

The front will remain quasi-stationary over the northern Gulf for
a little while longer this morning. A secondary push of cold air 
will cause the front to head SE as a cold front later today. The 
energized front will exit the SE Gulf Wed night, then begin to 
dissipate across the Straits of Florida by Thu night. Winds N of 
the front will subside to light to moderate and veer from the SE 
as high pres shifts E over the southern United states over the 
western Atlc.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate trades continue across the basin. A fairly dry
weather pattern remains in place. Mid to upper-level ridging 
extending northwestward over the basin from South America is 
maintaining the dry weather pattern with strong subsidence noted 
over the eastern Caribbean.

Low pressure systems moving eastward from the southern U.S. into 
the western Atlantic continue to weaken the ridge north of the 
area. Strong winds and seas running between 7 and 10 ft are 
observed near the coast of northern Colombia as relatively strong 
low pres inland maintains a tight pres gradient along the coast. 
The area of low pres inland will weaken during the next couple of
days and allow the winds and seas to subside.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening cold front extends SW from 32N54W to 28N62W. This 
boundary resumes as a warm front from 29N66W and continues NW to 
low pres 1013 mb centered near 33N73W. A cold front heads SW from 
the low to Ft Pierce Florida near 27.5N80W. No significant 
convection is seen in the vicinity of the weakening cold front. 
Scattered moderate convection is observed along and up to 90 nm N 
of the warm front, while scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is taking place along and N of the cold front to beyond
32N. Elsewhere, a large 1033 mb high centered over the eastern 
Atlantic SW of the Azores near 33N32W dominates the remainder of 
the Atlc. The ridge will maintain fair weather and moderate to 
fresh trade winds over the tropical Atlc north of the ITCZ and W 
of 30W.
  
The low east of the Carolinas will head ENE today, and drag a 
cold front across Florida. The cold front will extend from 31N72W
to South Florida Wed morning, then dissipate across the Straits 
of Florida by Thu night. The front will be preceded by fresh to 
strong SW winds and seas building to between 8 and 10 ft. Winds 
and seas will subside by Thu night as the front weakens.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy