000 AXNT20 KNHC 090559 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 159 AM EDT Mon Apr 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from west Africa near 12N16W to 06N16W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 02S30W to South America near 03S42W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 00N-10N between 09W-13W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05S-02N between 21W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A quasi-stationary front extends from Fort Pierce Florida near 29N80W to N of Tampa Florida near 28N83W to the central Gulf of Mexico near 27N90W to S of Veracruz Mexico near 19N95W. Abundant cloudiness prevails over the N Gulf N of 26N. Radar imagery shows scattered showers over central Florida N of 27N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the majority of the basin while an area of moderate to fresh winds is noted in scatterometer data over the Bay of Campeche. The front will retrograde northward on Mon. A second push of cold air along with a developing low pressure along the frontal boundary will allow the front to transition to a cold front again moving over the northern Gulf waters on Mon. The low is forecast to move across Florida toward the western Atlantic late on Mon dragging this cold front across the SE Gulf and South Florida by Wed morning. The front is forecast to dissipate across the Straits of Florida by Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gentle to moderate tradewinds dominate the basin. Scattered showers are over Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands. Isolated moderate convection is inland over Central America from Guatemala to Panama. Similar convection is over N Colombia. Upper- level ridging extends northward over the basin from South America with strong subsidence over the central and eastern Caribbean. Tradewind flow over the basin remains lighter than normal. As a result, seas are running fairly low across the area, with the highest seas of around 5-8 ft occurring near the coast of Colombia. Only slight change in the weather pattern is expected during the next couple of days as the surface ridge to the north remains relatively weak. Seas will build to 10 ft near the coast of Colombia, however, on Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N64W to 28N74W, then stationary to Fort Pierce Florida near 29N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A prefrontal squall line is E of the front with scattered moderate convection N of 29N between 59W-63W. Elsewhere, a large 1037 mb high is located over the northeast Atlantic near 37N29W dominating the remainder of the area. Fair weather and moderate trade winds will prevail over the tropical Atlantic north of the ITCZ and west of 30W. The western portion of the W Atlantic front is forecast to lift back to the N as a warm front on Mon and connect with a developing low pressure system just off South Carolina. The low will move E-NE on Tue dragging a cold front across Florida. The new cold front will extend from 31N72W to South Florida by Wed morning, and dissipate across the Straits of Florida by Thu. Both fronts will be preceded by fresh to strong SW winds and building seas. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa