000 AXNT20 KNHC 081202 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 802 AM EDT Sun Apr 8 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 12N17W to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to South America near 00N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is along the coast of W Africa from 03N-07N between 01W-13W. Isolated moderate convection is along the coast of South America from 05S-05N between 31W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N83W to 27N90W to 21N97W. Abundant cloudiness prevails along and north of the front at this time, and scattered showers are noted along 25N and east of 86W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the majority of the basin while an area of moderate to fresh winds is noted in scatterometer data over the Bay of Campeche. The front will become nearly stationary and weaken from near Sarasota Florida to Tampico Mexico tonight. A second cold front will reach SE Louisiana on Mon, and move across across the northern Gulf waters on Tue. A weak low is forecast to develop along the frontal boundary near 29N86W on Tue, and will move NE across the Florida Peninsula toward the western Atlantic on Wed, dragging the cold front. This front is forecast to reach from near Tampa Bay to Tuxpan Mexico Tue evening, reach from SW Florida to near Veracruz Mexico Wed morning, and weaken as it reaches farther south in the southeast Gulf late Wed night. Relatively weak high pres will build in the wake of this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gentle to moderate tradewinds dominate the Caribbean basin. Isolated moderate convection is inland over S Guatemala, Costa Rica, W Panama, and N Colombia. Scattered showers are over central Hispaniola, and over the Leeward Islands. The remainder of the Caribbean has mostly fair weather. Upper level ridging extends northward over the basin from South America with strong subsidence over the central and eastern Caribbean. Tradewind flow over the basin remains lighter than normal. As a result, seas are running fairly low across the area, with the highest seas of around 5 ft occurring near the coast of Colombia. Little change in the weather pattern is expected during the next couple of days as the surface ridge to the north remains weak. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Pre-frontal scattered moderate convection is noted over the W Atlantic off the coast of Florida N of 26N and W of 75W. Elsewhere, a large 1035 mb high is located over the central Atlantic near 40N33W dominating the entire basin. Fair weather and moderate trade winds will prevail over the tropical Atlantic north of the ITCZ and west of 30W. A cold front will move off the NE Florida coast later today, reaching from near 31N65W to the northern Bahamas tonight, then stall and weaken along 28N on Mon. The western portion of the front will lift back to the N as a warm front through early Tue. Another cold front will move over the NW waters Mon night into Tue, reach from near 31N70W to the northern Bahamas and S Florida on Wed, and extend from 29N65W to the central Bahamas on Wed night. Both fronts will be preceded by fresh to strong SW winds and building seas. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA/Formosa