000 AXNT20 KNHC 071731 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 130 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 03N23W. The ITCZ continues from 03N23W to 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm on either side of the boundaries between 13W-29W and west of 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered moderate to strong convection covers the northern Gulf ahead of a frontal system that extends across the Gulf states at this time. Strongest convection is currently north of 28N and east of 90W. High pressure located over the Atlantic is ridging westward across the remainder of the basin. The front will enter the northern Gulf waters today, reaching from the Florida Panhandle to the north-central Gulf near 28N90W to near Tampico, Mexico this evening, and from near Tampa Bay to the SW Gulf near Veracruz, Mexico by Sun morning. Then, the front will become nearly stationary and weaken from near Sarasota Florida to Tampico Mexico on Sun night. A second cold front will reach the northern Gulf early Tue, then extend from near Ft Myers FL to the central Gulf Wed afternoon, and weaken as it reaches farther south in the southeast waters late Wed night. Relatively weak high pres will build from W to E across the area behind the front. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast behind the front in the NW Gulf with the fronts. Seas will range between 4-7 ft with the strongest winds, then 3-5 ft seas will prevail. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gentle to moderate tradewinds dominate the Caribbean basin with mostly fair weather promoted by a mid-to upper-level ridging extending northward over the basin from South America. The only exception to this is over Hispaniola, where scattered showers are over the higher terrain. Shower coverage is expected to decrease during the next couple of days. Tradewind flow over the basin remains lighter than normal as low pressure systems moving eastward from the United States cause the ridge to the north to weaken. As a result, seas are running fairly low across the area, with the highest seas of around 5 ft occurring near the coast of Colombia. Little change in the weather pattern is expected during the next couple of days as the surface ridge to the north remains weak. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The tail end of a stationary front enters the discussion area near 31N61W to 28N67W. Scattered showers are within 75 nm of the front N of 28N. A weak surface trough is located over the southern Bahamas from 25N72W to 21N73W. No significant convection is currently associated with this trough. Farther east, the tail end of a cold front extends east of the Canary Islands from 31N10W to 28N14W with little convection. Elsewhere, a large 1028 mb high pressure system is located over the central Atlantic near 34N36W dominating the remainder of the basin. Fair weather and moderate trade winds will prevail over the tropical Atlantic north of the ITCZ and west of 30W. A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast tonight, reaching from 31N76W to near Daytona Beach, FL by Sun morning, and from near 31N64W the northern Bahamas Sun night, then stall and weaken along 28N on Mon evening. The western portion of the front will lift back to the north as a warm front through early Tue. Another cold front will move over the northwest waters Tue night, and reach from near 31N70W to the northern Bahamas and south Florida Wed afternoon. Both fronts will be preceded by fresh to strong southwest winds and building seas up to 8 ft. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA