000 AXNT20 KNHC 071146 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 746 AM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough continues from the border of Sierra Leone and Guinea on the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 03N23W. The ITCZ continues from 03N23W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm on either side of the boundaries between 15W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered moderate to strong convection covers the N Gulf States between Alabama and E Texas due to an inland cold front. High pressure located over the Atlantic is ridging westward across the Gulf of Mexico from Florida to SRN Texas and NERN Mexico, producing little cloudiness S of 28N. Moderate to occasionally fresh E to SE winds will gradually build to between 4 and 5 ft over the NW Gulf. Otherwise, seas are running in the 2 to 4 foot range. Winds will slowly veer from the SE and S across the region through Saturday ahead of the next cold front, which is due to enter the NW Gulf this evening. The front will continue to move SE then stall from S Florida to the Bay of Campeche through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-15 kt tradewinds dominates the Caribbean Sea with mostly fair weather. Mid to upper-level ridging extending northward over the basin from South America is promoting a generally dry weather pattern. The only exception to this is over Hispaniola, where scattered showers are over the higher terrain. Shower coverage is expected to decrease during the next couple of days. Tradewind flow over the basin remains lighter than normal as low pressure systems moving eastward from the United States cause the ridge to the north to weaken. As a result, seas are running fairly low across the area, with the highest seas of around 5 ft occurring near the coast of Colombia. Little change in the weather pattern is expected during the next couple of days as the surface ridge to the north remains weak. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front enters the discussion area near 31N59W to 28N67W. Scattered showers are within 75 nm of the front N of 30N. A weak surface trough is located over the S Bahamas from 25N72W to 21N73W. No significant convection is currently associated with this trough. Farther east, a cold front is producing a narrow band of clouds and a few showers over the Canary Islands from 31N09W to 28N14W. Otherwise, a large 1028 mb high pressure system is located over the central Atlantic near 34N36W. Fair weather and moderate trade winds will prevail over the tropical Atlantic N of the ITCZ and W of 30W. These winds will become fresh by Sun as the high pressure builds S and SWD over most of the area. The next cold front is expected to enter the far western Atlantic waters tonight, and reach 32N62W Sun night, and 32N55W Mon night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA/Formosa