000 AXNT20 KNHC 070527 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 127 AM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough continues from the border of Sierra Leone and Guinea on the coast of Africa near 09N13W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 02N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-04N between 15W-26W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 02S-03N between 42W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered moderate to strong convection covers the N Gulf States between Alabama and E Texas due to an inland cold front. Broken to overcast low clouds are over the N Gulf N of 28N. High pressure located over the Atlantic is ridging westward across the Gulf of Mexico from Florida to SRN Texas and NERN Mexico, producing little cloudiness S of 28N. Moderate to occasionally fresh E to SE winds will gradually build to between 4 and 5 ft over the NW Gulf. Otherwise, seas are running in the 2 to 4 foot range. Winds will slowly veer from the SE and S across the region through Saturday ahead of the next cold front, which is due to enter the NW Gulf Sat evening. The front will continue to move SE then stall from S Florida to the Bay of Campeche by Sun evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... 10-15 kt tradewinds dominates the Caribbean Sea with mostly fair weather. Mid to upper-level ridging extending northward over the basin from South America is promoting a generally dry weather pattern. The only exception to this is over Hispaniola, where scattered showers are over the higher terrain. Shower coverage is expected to decrease during the next couple of days. Tradewind flow over the basin remains lighter than normal as low pressure systems moving eastward from the United States cause the ridge to the north to weaken. As a result, seas are running fairly low across the area, with the highest seas of around 5 ft occurring near the coast of Colombia. Little change in the weather pattern is expected during the next couple of days as the surface ridge to the north remains weak. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front enters the discussion area near 32N57W, and extends southwestward to 26N70W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the front N of 29N. A weak surface trough is located over the S Bahamas from 25N72W to 21N73W. No significant convection is currently associated with this trough. Farther east, a weakening cold front is producing a narrow band of clouds and a few showers over the Canary Islands from 32N09W to 27N16W. Otherwise, a large 1029 mb high pressure system is located over the central Atlantic near 35N36W. Fair weather and moderate trade winds will prevail over the tropical Atlantic N of the ITCZ and W of 30W. These winds will become fresh by Sun as the high pressure builds S and SWD over most of the area. The next cold front is expected to enter the far western Atlantic waters Sat night, and reach 32N62W Sun night, and 32N55W Mon night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa