000 AXNT20 KNHC 061736 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 136 PM EDT Fri Apr 6 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough continues from the border of Sierra Leone and Guinea on the coast of Africa near 09N13W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present south of 04N and west of 22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure located over the Atlantic is ridging westward across the Gulf of Mexico from Florida to SRN Texas and NERN Mexico, producing little cloudiness. Moderate to occasionally fresh E to SE winds will gradually build to between 4 and 5 ft over the western Gulf. Otherwise, seas are running in the 2- to 4-foot range. Winds will slowly veer from the SE and S across the region through Saturday ahead of the next cold front, which is due to enter the NW Gulf Sat evening. The front will continue to move SE then stall from S Florida to the Bay of Campeche by Sun evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Placid weather will prevail across the Caribbean today. Mid to upper- level ridging extending northward over the basin from South America is promoting a generally dry weather pattern. The only exception to this is over Hispaniola, where a weak upper-level trough and afternoon heating should trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the higher terrain into early evening. The trough is expected to move eastward away from Hispaniola, causing shower coverage to decrease during the next couple of days. Trade-wind flow over the basin remains lighter than normal as low pressure systems moving eastward from the United States cause the ridge to the north to weaken. As a result, seas are running fairly low across the area, with the highest seas of around 5 ft occurring near the coast of Colombia. Little change in the weather pattern is expected during the next couple of days as the ridge to the north remains weak. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front enters the discussion area near 31N62W, and extends southwestward to 27N69W, then continues as a weakening stationary front to the east of the Bahamas near 25N75W. Patchy cloudiness and isolated showers are present along and up to 125 nm northwest of this boundary. A weak surface trough is located east of the front from 27N70W southward to 20N72W. No significant convection is currently associated with this trough. Farther east, a weakening cold front is producing a narrow band of clouds and a few showers from 31N14W to 27N22W. Otherwise, a 1028 mb high pressure system located near 34N37W continues to dominate the central and eastern Atlantic. Fair weather and moderate trade winds will prevail over the tropical Atlantic N of the ITCZ and W of 30W. These winds will become fresh by Sun as the high pressure builds S and SWD over most of the area. The next cold front is expected to enter the far western Atlantic waters Sat night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA/Stewart