000 AXNT20 KNHC 060000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Apr 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone on the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues from 05N17W to 03N23W to 01N36W and then to the coast of Brazil near 03S43W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is located within an area bounded by 06N12W to 03N35W to 01S39W to 02S30W to 06N12W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening cold front extends from the Florida Keys to 23N85W to 23N90W. Isolated showers and patchy cloudiness are present along and up to 90 nm N of this boundary. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring in convergent low-level SE flow over the western Gulf of Mexico from 25N to 27N between 95W and 97W. This activity is associated with a surface trough that curves NW from the Bay of Campeche near 18N93W to 22N96W to just E of Corpus Christi Texas near 27N97W. High pressure located over the eastern U.S. ridges southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to occasionally fresh E to SE winds are causing seas up to 6 ft over the northwestern corner of the Gulf. Otherwise, seas are running in the 2 to 4-foot range. Looking ahead, the cold front is expected to dissipate this evening, and winds are expected to veer from the SE and S across the region by late Friday ahead of the next cold front, which is due to enter the NW Gulf Sat evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tranquil weather prevails across the Caribbean today. Mid to upper-level ridging aloft is promoting a relatively dry weather pattern. The only exception to this is over hispaniola, where a weak upper-level trough is helping to trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the higher terrain. The trade winds remain lighter than normal as low pressure systems continue moving eastward from the United States to weaken the ridge to the north. Consequently, the seas are running fairly low across the area, with the highest seas around 5 ft near the coast of Colombia. No significant changes in the weather pattern is expected during the next couple of days as the ridge to the north remains weak. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front over the western Atlantic enters the discussion area near 32N67W, then extends southwestward to near Key Largo Florida. Cloudiness and scattered showers are present along and up to 120 nm northwest of this boundary. A weak surface trough located to the east of the front curves S from 28N68W to just NE of the Turks and Caicos Islands near 23N71W. Convergent low-level flow is only generating isolated showers within 90 n mi of the trough axis. Similar weather is occurring within 150 nm of another trough that is located along 56W from 15N to 22N. Farther east, a weakening cold front is producing a narrow band of clouds and showers along its axis from 32N22W to 29N41W. Otherwise, tranquil conditions exist elsewhere under the influences of dry air aloft and surface high pressure. The above-mentioned features are expected to gradually dissipate during the next couple of days, which should allow surface high pressure to dominate much of the Atlantic basin by this weekend. The next cold front is expected to enter the far western Atlantic waters Saturday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy