000
AXNT20 KNHC 051145
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
745 AM EDT Thu Apr 5 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
     
The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone on the coast of
Africa near 08N12W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 
00N30W to 02S40W and then to the coast of Brazil near 01S51W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is located 
within 180 n mi north of the ITCZ between 20W and 25W. Similar 
convection is within 240 n mi north of the ITCZ between 31W and 
39W. Isolated moderate convection is located from the Equator to 
03N between 41W and 51W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from central Florida to about the middle of
the Gulf of Mexico near 26N90W. The boundary is stationary from
that point to 25N97W and then it dips southward just off the coast
of Mexico to 20N96W. Observations from platforms and buoys show 
moderate to fresh NE winds to the N of the front. The remainder of
the Gulf S of the front is experiencing light to moderate E to SE
return flow and fair weather.

The cold front is expected to completely stall over the northern 
Gulf today. Convection associated with the front is tapering off 
as the front begins to weaken. High pressure will build over the 
SE United States on Thu, then shift E over the western Atlc on 
Fri. Light to moderate E winds Thu will veer from the SE on Fri. 
Otherwise, weak surface troughing will develop over the Yucatan 
Peninsula each day, then shift west over the Bay of Campeche at 
night. Otherwise, a generally dry weather pattern is expected to 
remain in place through the end of the week and mid to upper-level
ridging slowly builds over the basin from the W. The next cold 
front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Sat night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A sharp upper-level trough has shifted to the NE of the 
Caribbean. This is allowing broad mid to upper-level ridging to 
build over the area from the W. As a result, the weather over the 
Caribbean will remain relatively dry for the next several days.

The surface high pressure ridge to the N of the area will remain 
weakened during the next several days as low pres systems depart 
eastward from the United States. This will keep wind speeds over 
the basin relatively low in the light to moderate range. Winds 
will be moderate to fresh over the south central Caribbean, except
locally strong along the northern Coast of Colombia during the 
late night and early morning hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 mb high centered over the central Atlantic near 37N46W and
ridges WSW across the Bahamas. A surface ridge curves ESE from 
this high toward the Iberian Peninsula. This area of high pressure
dominates the Atlantic and will maintain moderate to fresh trade 
winds and mostly fair weather over the tropical Atlantic N of the 
ITCZ and west of 25W through Sat. A cold front will enter the 
western Atlantic tonight and move into the central Atlantic on 
Fri. The southern portion of the front will stall and weaken over 
the southern Bahamas, then the front will weaken and dissipate by 
Sat. The next cold front will enter the far NW waters on Sun.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy/Cangialosi