000 AXNT20 KNHC 050547 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 146 AM EDT Thu Apr 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone on the coast of Africa near 07N12W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 01N23W to 02S40W to the coast of Brazil near 02S51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found along the coast of Brazil from 02S to 02N between 32W and 46W. Isolated moderate and strong convection is present within 90 nm of a line from 05N11W to 02N27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from near Apalachicola Florida to the NW Gulf of Mexico near 25.5N95.5W to just S of Tampico Mexico near 21N97.5W. Cloudiness and isolated showers are occurring along and N of the front to the W of 90W. Observations from platforms and buoys show moderate to fresh NE winds to the N of the front. The remainder of the Gulf S of the front is experiencing light to moderate E to SE return flow and fair weather. The cold front is slowing down and will stall over the northern Gulf today. Convection associated with the front has already tapered off as the front begins to weaken. High pressure will build over the SE United States on Thu, then shift E over the western Atlc on Fri. Light to moderate E winds Thu will veer from the SE on Fri. Otherwise, weak surface troughing will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each day, then shift west over the Bay of Campeche at night. Otherwise, a generally dry weather pattern is expected to remain in place through the end of the week and mid to upper-level ridging slowly builds over the basin from the W. The next cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A sharp upper-level trough has shifted to the NE of the Caribbean. This is allowing broad mid to upper-level ridging to build over the area from the W. As a result, the weather over the Caribbean will remain relatively dry for the next several days. The surface high pressure ridge to the N of the area will remain weakened during the next several days as low pres systems depart eastward from the United States. This will keep wind speeds over the basin relatively low in the light to moderate range. Winds will be moderate to fresh over the south central Caribbean, except locally strong along the northern Coast of Colombia during the late night and early morning hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Double barreled 1027 mb high centered over the NW Atlantic near 43N47W and 38N47W ridges WSW over the Bahamas. A surface ridge curves ESE from this high toward the Iberian Peninsula. This area of high pressure dominates the Atlantic and will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds and mostly fair weather over the tropical Atlantic N of the ITCZ and west of 25W through Sat. A cold front will enter the western Atlantic tonight and move into the central Atlantic on Fri. The southern portion of the front will stall and weaken over the southern Bahamas, then the front will weaken and dissipate by Sat. The next cold front will enter the far NW waters on Sun. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy