000 AXNT20 KNHC 041649 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1249 PM EDT Wed Apr 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04N16W to 00S30W to Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 01N-04N between 06W-12W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the coast of Brazil from 04S-03N between 34W- 50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from Pensacola Florida to the NW Gulf of Mexico to beyond Brownsville Texas. Radar imagery shows a prefrontal trough from 30N84W to 27N93W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the front. 20-30 kt N winds are reported behind the front. The remainder of the Gulf S of the front and trough has 10 kt southerly return flow with fair weather. A ridge extends from the western Atlantic near 33N61W WSW to Tampa Florida to the central Gulf. The Gulf front will stall over the northern Gulf tonight. Convection is expected to be confined N of 26N and taper off after tonight. High pressure will build over the SE United States on Thu, then shift E over the western Atlc on Fri. Light to moderate E winds Thu will veer from the SE on Fri. Otherwise, weak surface troughing will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each day, then shift west into the Bay of Campeche at night. Otherwise, a generally dry weather pattern is expected to remain in place through the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Presently, scattered moderate convection is over portions of NW Venezuela and N Colombia. A sharp upper-level trough is over the north central Caribbean with upper-level divergence noted over the Windward Islands. Scattered to broken high clouds are over the Windward Islands. The surface high pressure ridge to the N of the of the area will be weakened by low pres moving E from the United States. This will keep wind speeds over the basin relatively low in the light to moderate range. Winds will be moderate to fresh over the south central Caribbean, except locally strong along the northern Coast of Colombia during the late night and early morning hours. Mostly dry weather will continue over the remainder of the basin the next couple days as a subsident air mass associated with ridging to the W of the upper level trough moves E over the basin. The upper- level ridge will then dominate the weather through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 33N61W. A ridge axis extends WSW from the high to central Florida near 28N. A surface ridge extends E from this high to another 1022 mb high over the E Atlantic near 34N19W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and mostly fair weather will prevail over the tropical Atlantic N of the ITCZ and west of 25W through Fri. A cold front will enter the western Atlantic tonight and move into the central Atlantic on Fri. The southern portion of the front will stall and weaken over the northern Bahamas. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa