000 AXNT20 KNHC 041144 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 744 AM EDT Wed Apr 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 00S30W to Brazil near 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-05N between 05W-12W, and from 02N-05N between 19W-25W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the coast of Brazil from 03S-03N between 35W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is extends from SW Louisiana to the NW Gulf of Mexico to S Texas. A prefrontal squall line extends from 29N91W to 27N97W. Scattered moderate convection is from the squall line to the Texas and Louisiana coasts. 20-30 kt N winds are reported behind the squall line and front. The remainder of the Gulf has 10 kt southerly return flow with fair weather. A ridge extends from the western Atlantic near 32N67W WSW to Tampa Florida and across the Gulf to Tampico Mexico. Moderate to fresh SE return flow prevails ahead of the next cold front which is due to enter the NW Gulf early on Wed morning. The front will stall over the northern Gulf tonight. Convection is expected to be confined N of 26N and taper off after tonight. High pressure will build over the SE United States on Thu, then shift E over the western Atlc on Fri. Light to moderate E winds Thu will veer from the SE on Fri. Otherwise, weak surface troughing will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each day, then shift west into the Bay of Campeche at night. Otherwise, a generally dry weather pattern is expected to remain in place through the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Presently, isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring over Hispaniola. A sharp upper-level trough crosses the north central Caribbean with upper-level divergence noted E of the trough over the Virgin Islands and northern Windward Islands. A resultant plume of broken high clouds is over the E Caribbean E of 70W. The surface high pressure ridge to the N of the of the area will be weakened by low pres moving E from the United States. This will keep wind speeds over the basin relatively low in the light to moderate range. Winds will be moderate to fresh over the south central Caribbean, except locally strong along the northern Coast of Colombia during the late night and early morning hours. Mostly dry weather will continue over the remainder of the basin the next couple days as a subsident air mass associated with ridging to the W of the upper level trough moves E over the basin. The upper- level ridge will then dominate the weather through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1023 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 33N63W. A ridge axis extends WSW from the high to the northern coast of Florida near 29N. A weak surface ridge curves E from this high through a 1021 mb high over the E Atlantic near 33N22W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and mostly fair weather will prevail over the tropical Atlantic N of the ITCZ and west of 25W through Fri. A cold front will enter the western Atlantic tonight and move into the central Atlantic on Fri. The southern portion of the front will stall and weaken over the northern Bahamas. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa