000 AXNT20 KNHC 030004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 10N14W to 04N18W. The ITCZ begins near 04N18W and passes south of the equator near 28W. No significant convection is north of the equator. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from the western Atlantic across the northern Gulf. Moderate E to SE surface flow covers the Gulf with mostly fair weather. Return flow over the SW Gulf may become strong on Tue in response to deepening low pressure in the central U.S. Weak surface troughing will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each day, then shift west into the Bay of Campeche at night. A dry weather pattern is expected to remain in place for the next two days. A cold front will enter the northwest Gulf on Wed and reach the southeast Gulf by Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Undersea volcano Kick 'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises mariners to observe a 1.5 km or 0.8 nm exclusion zone. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information. High pressure NE of the area in the Atlantic will maintain fresh trades in the south-central Caribbean the next few days. Locally strong winds are possible near the coast of Colombia at night. Light to moderate trades are forecast elsewhere through Thu, and weaken slightly as the ridge weakens. A surface trough along 64W will drift into the central Caribbean through Wed. Mostly dry weather will continue over the remainder of the basin the next couple days as mid to upper-level ridge extends north over the basin from South America. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak surface trough in the central Atlantic extends from 32N49W to 29N56W. The trough will shift eastward the next couple of days. A ridge in the central Atlantic along 31N will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds and mostly fair weather over the tropical Atlantic west of 25W and north of the ITCZ through mid- week. A cold front will enter the western Atlantic Wed night and move into the central Atlantic on Fri. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell