000 AXNT20 KNHC 021636 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1236 PM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 10N14W to 03N20W. The ITCZ begins near 03N20W to 01S30W to S America near 01S48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-05N between 07W-13W, and from 05S-03N between 34W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high is centered over the N Florida near 30N81W. 10-15 kt E to SE surface flow covers the Gulf with mostly fair weather. The surface high will shift eastward over the Atlantic through Tue night. The return flow over the SW Gulf could become strong on Tue in response to deepening low pressure over the central plains states. Weak surface troughing will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each day, then shift west over the Bay of Campeche during the evening hours. Mid to upper-level ridging building over the Gulf from Mexico will keep a dry weather pattern in place for the next couple of days. The next cold front will enter the northwest Gulf on Wed and reach the southeast Gulf by Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Seismic activity with undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W has steadily declined, and the alert level for mariners has returned to normal, with an exclusion zone of 1.5 km. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information. A surface ridge over the western Atlantic will maintain fresh trade winds over the south-central Caribbean for the next few days. Locally strong winds are expected adjacent to the coast of northern Colombia. Light to moderate trades are forecast elsewhere through mid-week. Winds will slightly subside during this time frame as the ridge weakens. A surface trough is over the E Caribbean along 64W. Only patchy cloudiness and isolated showers are observed over the Leeward Islands. This trough is expected to migrate toward the central Caribbean during the next couple of days. Relatively dry weather will continue over the remainder of the basin for the next couple days as mid to upper-level ridge extends north over the basin from South America. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough over the central Atlantic extends from 32N51W to 29N58W. This trough is mostly void of precipitation and will continue moving east over the next two days. A dissipating cold front is over the E Atlantic from 32N12W through the Canary Islands to 23N20W to 21N30W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm E of the front. This front will exit the basin tonight. A ridge will maintain moderate to fresh winds over the tropical Atlantic west of 25W and north of the ITCZ through mid-week. The next cold front will enter the W Atlantic Wed night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa