000 AXNT20 KNHC 021153 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 753 AM EDT Mon Apr 2 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 10N14W to 03N19W. The ITCZ begins near 03N19W to 01S30W to S America near 01N47W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-07N between 05W-13W, and from 05S-02N between 34W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1017 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 29N84W. 10-15 kt E to SE surface flow covers the Gulf with mostly fair weather. The surface high will shift eastward over the Atlantic through Tue night. The return flow over the SW Gulf could become strong on Tue in response to deepening low pressure over the central plains states. Weak surface troughing will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each day, then shift west over the Bay of Campeche during the evening hours. Mid to upper-level ridging building over the Gulf from Mexico will keep a dry weather pattern in place for the next couple of days. The next cold front will enter the northwest Gulf on Wed and reach the southeast Gulf by Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Seismic activity with undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W has steadily declined, and the alert level for mariners has returned to normal, with an exclusion zone of 1.5 km. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information. A surface ridge over the western Atlantic will maintain fresh trade winds over the south-central Caribbean for the next few days. Locally strong winds are expected adjacent to the coast of northern Colombia. Light to moderate trades are forecast elsewhere through mid-week. Winds will slightly subside during this time frame as the ridge weakens. A surface trough is over the E Caribbean along 62W. Only patchy cloudiness and isolated showers are observed in the vicinity of the trough. This trough is expected to migrate toward the central Caribbean during the next couple of days. Relatively dry weather will continue over the remainder of the basin for the next couple days as mid to upper- level ridge extends north over the basin from South America. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough over the central Atlantic extends from 32N51W to 28N57W. This trough is mostly void of precipitation. This trough will continue moving east over the next two days. A cold front is over the E Atlantic from 32N13W through the Canary Islands to 26N19W to 24N27W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm E of the front. This front will exit the basin today. A ridge will maintain moderate to fresh winds over the tropical Atlantic west of 25W and north of the ITCZ through mid-week. The next cold front will enter the W Atlantic Wed night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa