000 AXNT20 KNHC 011654 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1254 PM EDT Sun Apr 1 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone on the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W to 00N34W to 02N47W to the coast of Brazil near 02N52W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within an area bounded by 03N08W to 01N23W to 06N19W to 07N13W to 03N08W and from 01N to 05N between 50W and 52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A relatively quiet weather scenario is setting up for the Gulf for the next few days. A broad surface ridge crosses the basin from NE to SW from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche. Satellite-derived wind data depict moderate to occasionally fresh NE to E winds across the basin. Expect for the front to weaken and dissipate this morning. The high pres ridge crossing Gulf will shift eastward through Tue night, allowing winds over the Gulf to veer from east to southeast. The return flow over the SW Gulf could become strong on Tue in response to deepening low pressure over the central plains states. Weak surface troughing will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each day, then shift west over the Bay of Campeche during the evening. Mid to upper-level ridging building over the Gulf from Mexico will keep a dry weather pattern in place for the next couple of days. The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Wed and reach the SE Gulf Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Seismic activity with undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W has steadily declined, and the alert level for mariners has returned to normal, with an exclusion zone of 1.5 km. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information. A high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic will maintain fresh trade winds over the south-central Caribbean for the next few days. Winds will be locally strong adjacent to the coast of northern Colombia. Light to moderate trades are forecast elsewhere through Wednesday night. Winds will slightly subside during this time frame as the ridge weakens. A weak surface trough is entering the SE Caribbean from the Windward Islands. It extends from 14N61W to 11N64W. Only patchy cloudiness and isolated showers are observed in the vicinity of the trough. This trough is expected to migrate toward the central Caribbean during the next couple of days. Otherwise, relatively dry weather will continue over the basin for the next couple days as mid to upper- level ridge extends N over the basin from S America. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening stationary front extends from 32N73W to 30N79W to the coast of Florida near 27.5N80W. This front will dissipate this afternoon. Patchy cloudiness and isolated showers are present along and up to 60 nm NW of this boundary. A surface trough extends NE from the Virgin islands near 19N64W to 32N54W. There is little significant weather associated with this feature. Another surface trough stretches NE from near St Lucia to 22N54W. An upper-level low providing support to this trough is triggering Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection within 90 nm of 21N53W. A cold front curves SW from 32N19W to 28N31W to 28N36W, then continues as a weakening stationary front to 29N39W to 28N42W to 30N47W. This boundary is not generating any significant deep convection. A surface ridge dominating the remainder of the basin is anchored by a 1024 mb high located near 32N45W. The ridge will maintain moderate to fresh winds over the tropical Atlantic west of 25W and north of the ITCZ through Wed. The trough extending NE from near the Virgin Islands will remain weak and move W toward the Turks and Caicos Islands during the next 48 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy