000 AXNT20 KNHC 011205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Sun Apr 1 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone on the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to 01N29W to 03N42W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within an area bounded by 02N06W to 01N25W to 05N20W to 07N12W to 02N06W and within 45 nm of a line from 02N35W to 03N42W to 05N47W to 04N52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends into the W central Gulf from near Marco Island Florida to 24N86W to 23N91W. This boundary has begun to weaken and currently possesses no significant convection. A surface ridge crosses the basin from NE to SW from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche. To the southwest, a very weak surface trough extends northward over the Bay of Campeche from 18N94W to 22N93W. This feature has virtually no cloudiness or showers associated with it. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to occasionally fresh NE to E winds across the basin. Expect for the front to weaken and dissipate this morning. The high pres ridge crossing Gulf will shift east to southeast through Tue night, allowing winds over the Gulf to veer from east to southeast. Weak surface troughing will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each day, then shift west over the Bay of Campeche during the evening. The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf on Wed. Mid to upper-level ridging building over the Gulf from Mexico will keep a dry weather pattern in place for the next couple of days. CARIBBEAN SEA... Seismic activity with undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W has steadily declined, and the alert level for mariners has returned to normal, with an exclusion zone of 1.5 km. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information. A high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean for the next few days. Moderate to fresh trades are forecast elsewhere through Wednesday night. Winds will slightly subside during this time frame as the ridge weakens. A weak surface trough is entering the SE Caribbean from the Windward Islands. Only some patchy cloudiness and isolated showers are observed in the vicinity of the trough. Otherwise, relatively dry weather will continue over the basin for the next couple days as mid to upper-level ridge extending N over the basin from S America. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 32N75W to to 30N78W to Ft Pierce Florida. This front has begun to weaken. Cloudiness and isolated showers are present along and up to 150 nm NW of this boundary. East of the front, a surface extends from 31N54W to 26N59W to 19N62W. The is little significant weather near this feature. A surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1022 mb high located near 32N46W. The front will dissipate by today. Elsewhere, the high pressure ridge will maintain moderate to fresh winds over the tropical Atlantic west of 25W and north of the ITCZ through Monday night. The trough near the Windward Islands will move west through the SE Caribbean during the next 24 hours. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy