000 AXNT20 KNHC 312359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 759 PM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Liberia on the coast of Africa near 07N11W to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N and east of 18W while scattered showers prevail within 50 nm on either side of the boundaries. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends across the basin from Ft Myers Florida to 26N82W to 22N92W to 18N92W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed along and up to 60 nm SE of the front mainly south of 24N including the Yucatan Channel. A surface ridge extends SW from Louisiana across the NW Gulf and along the NE coast of Mexico to near Veracruz. Expect the entire front to weaken tonight. Strong N winds are expected behind the front along the coast of Mexico near Veracruz through this evening. As the front continues to weaken, winds over the Gulf will subside. The high pres ridge over the NW Gulf will shift east through Tue, allowing winds over the Gulf to veer from NE to E today to SE on Tue. Weak surface troughing will develop over the Yucatan Peninsula each day, then shift W over the Bay of Campeche during the evening. However, winds in the vicinity of these troughs are only expected to be moderate to fresh. CARIBBEAN SEA... Seismic activity with undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W has steadily declined, and the alert level for mariners has returned to normal, with an exclusion zone of 1.5 km. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information. A high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean for the next few days. Gentle to moderate trades are forecast elsewhere through Wed night. Winds will slightly subside during this time frame as the ridge weakens slightly. Relatively dry weather will continue over the basin for the next couple days as mid to upper-level ridge currently crossing the basin from Nicaragua and Honduras to Haiti remains overhead. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N75W to 27N80W. Scattered showers are noted within 200 nm north of the front. East of this boundary, a weak high pressure ridge with several centers extends all the way across the Atlantic from near the Strait of Gibraltar to 31N71W. A 1018 mb surface low is centered near 31N54W with a trough extending from the low to 20N60W. Scattered showers are expected mainly along the trough. A weak surface trough extends SW from 19N56W to 13N61W. This trough only has some cloudiness and isolated showers associated with it. The cold front will stall north of the Bahamas tonight, and then dissipate by Monday. Elsewhere, The high pressure ridge will maintain moderate to fresh winds over the tropical Atlantic W of 25W and N of the ITCZ through Mon night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ CM/ERA