000 AXNT20 KNHC 311204 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 AM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone on the coast of Africa to 07N12W to 02N17W. The ITCZ continues from 02N17W to 01S32W to 01N42W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 07N between 10W and 13W...from 01N to 03N between 14W and 23W...from 04S to 00N between 34W and 40W and from 00N to 05N between 48W and 52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the basin from Tampa Florida to 24N90W through the bay of Campeche to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec near 18N94W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed primarily north of the front to the east of 88W. A surface ridge extends SW from Louisiana across the NW Gulf into NE Mexico. Expect for the front to stall and weaken from the central Florida coast to the Bay of Campeche today. Fresh to near-gale force northerly winds are expected behind the front along the coast of Mexico near Veracruz through this evening. As the front stalls and weakens. winds over the Gulf will subside. CARIBBEAN SEA... Seismic activity with undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W has steadily declined, and the alert level for mariners has returned to normal, with an exclusion zone of 1.5 km. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information. A high pressure ridge over the west Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean for the next few days. Gentle to moderate trades are forecast elsewhere through Wed night. Winds will slightly subside during this time frame as the ridge weakens slightly. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak high pressure ridge with several centers extends across Atlantic. A surface trough extends from 32N51W through weak low pres 1016 mb near 31N52W to 20N57W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted with this feature between 21N and 23N between 53W and 55W. High pressure ridge northeast of the Bahamas will shift east- northeast through this morning allowing for the winds and seas to diminish gradually. A cold front will move farther off the northeast coast of Florida this morning, stall north of the Bahamas through the day, and then lift north of the area as a warm front from Sunday through Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy