000
AXNT20 KNHC 310526
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
126 AM EDT Sat Mar 31 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
     
The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 03N18W. The ITCZ begins
from 03N18W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
along the monsoon trough between 13W-20W and within 300 nm south
of the ITCZ between 22W-31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends across the basin from 28N83W to 24N92W then 
becomes stationary from that point to southwest to 19N95W.  
Scattered to numerous showers prevail along and north of the 
front mainly north of 24N. A surface ridge extends from the west 
Atlantic across the remainder of the basin. Expect for the front 
to stall and weaken from the central Florida coast to the Bay of 
Campeche on today. Fresh to near-gale force northerly winds are 
expected in the Bay of Campeche through this evening, instigated 
by the ridge over eastern central Mexico.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Seismic activity with undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of 
Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W has steadily declined, and the alert 
level for mariners has returned to normal, with an exclusion zone 
of 1.5 km. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information. 

High pressure centered north of the area over the west Atlantic 
will continue to shift east-northeast through Saturday morning, 
allowing the continuation of fresh to strong trade winds in the 
south-central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades are forecast 
elsewhere through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge prevails across the west Atlantic with a 1023 mb 
high centered near 36N57W. To the east, a surface trough extends 
from 31N51W to 20N55W. Scattered showers are noted with this 
feature mainly south of 25N between 51W-56W. A surface ridge 
prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1024 mb 
high centered near 30N25W.

High pressure northeast of the Bahamas will shift east-northeast  
through this morning allowing for the winds and seas to diminish 
gradually. A cold front will move off northeast Florida this
morning, stall north of the Bahamas through the day, and then 
lift north of the area as a warm front from Sunday through Monday.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA