000 AXNT20 KNHC 292351 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 751 PM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean and relatively strong low pressure in northern parts of South America support winds pulsing to gale force within 75 nm of the coast of Colombia between 74W-76W. These conditions will recur during the evening and overnight hours for the next few days. Please read the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. This information also is found at the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa, transitioning to the ITCZ near 07N13W and continuing to 03N26W to 01S45W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is in the NW Gulf of Mexico, passing through south Mississippi, and into east coastal sections of Mexico near 21N97W. Scattered moderate convection are present along the front mainly north of 25N between 86W-94W. A surface ridge extends from a high pressure center that is to the NE of the northern Bahamas, into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong SE return flow will continue through early this afternoon. The current NW Gulf of Mexico cold front will extend from the Big Bend of Florida to Veracruz Mexico on Friday morning. The front will stall and weaken from central Florida to the Bay of Campeche on Saturday. Fresh to near-gale force NW winds are expected in the Bay of Campeche from tonight through Saturday morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the gale warning for the coastal areas near Colombia. Seismic activity with undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W has steadily declined, and the alert level for mariners has returned to normal, with an exclusion zone of 1.5 km. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information. Scattered showers are possible elsewhere, in scattered to broken low level clouds, except for the area that is from 13N southward between 66W and 77W. High pressure NE of the northern Bahamas will shift east-northeast slowly through Saturday morning, allowing the continuation of fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea. Minimal gale force winds near the coast of Colombia are forecast for tonight. Northerly swell will propagate into the north- central Caribbean Sea through Friday morning. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Friday morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front enters the central Atlantic near 31N52 and continues to a 1014 mb low centered near 25N56W. A surface trough extends from the low to 19N56W to 14N61W. Scattered moderate convection is noted with these features between 40W-59W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward from 50W eastward. A surface ridge extends from a 1029 mb high pressure center that is near 37N31W, through 32N39W, to 28N42W, 21N44W, and 15N52W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 24N19W, about 240 nm to the SSW of the SW part of the Canary Islands, and about 190 nm to the west of the coast of the Western Sahara. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, that is associated with the center, covers the Atlantic Ocean from 14N northward from 34W eastward. Clouds and possible rainshowers are from 180 nm to 560 nm of the center in the N quadrant, and from 350 nm to 500 n m of the center in the S quadrant. High pressure NE of the northern Bahamas will shift east-northeast slowly through Saturday morning allowing for the winds and seas to diminish gradually through early Friday. A cold front will move off NE Florida on Friday evening, stall N of the Bahamas on Saturday, and then lift N of the area as a warm front from Sunday through Monday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA/MT