000 AXNT20 KNHC 291206 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 806 AM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean and relatively strong low pressure in northern parts of South America support winds pulsing to gale force, within 60 nm of the coast of Colombia between 74W and 77W. The gale force winds will recur each night during the evening and overnight hours, through Friday morning, while this surface weather pattern persists. Please read the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. This information also is found at the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Guinea-Bissau near 09N13W to 08N16W and 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 01N30W, crossing the Equator along 35W, to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 150 nm of the coast of Brazil between 33W and 50W. isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 07N southward from 46W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is along the Texas coast. It is set to move into the NW Gulf of Mexico during the day today. Numerous strong rainshowers are in the Texas coastal waters and coastal plains from 27N northward from 93W westward. A surface ridge from the Atlantic Ocean into the east-central Gulf will maintain fresh to strong SE return flow this morning. A cold front reaching the Texas coast later today will extend from SE Louisiana to Tampico Mexico this evening, and from the big bend of Florida to Veracruz Mexico Fri morning. The front will weaken and stall from central Florida to the Bay of Campeche on Sat. Strong NW winds are expected S of 20N west of the front near the Veracruz coast tonight through Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the gale warning for the coastal areas near Colombia. Seismic activity with undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W has steadily declined, and the alert level for mariners has returned to normal, with an exclusion zone of 1.5 km. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information. Scattered showers are over Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico, due to the remnants of a cold front. High pressure E of Jacksonville FL will shift eastward slowly through Fri. Fresh to strong trades will persist in the south-central Caribbean Sea through Sat morning. Winds will pulse one more time to minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia tonight. Large N swell will propagate into the NE Caribbean Sea through Fri morning. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N51W, to 30N52W, and 26N55W. A surface trough continues from 26N55W, to a 1013 mb low pressure center that is near 22N56W. The trough continues to 17N59W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong rainshowers cover the area that is from 15N northward between 50W and 60W. High-level clouds are within 300 nm on either side of the line 23N41W 13N52W 08N60W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward from 50W eastward. A surface ridge extends from a 1032 mb high pressure center that is near 38N31W, through 32N39W, to 25N45W, and 16N51W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N19W, about 180 nm to the SSW of the Canary Islands. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, that is associated with the center, covers the Atlantic Ocean from 17N northward from 34W eastward. Clouds and possible rainshowers are within 400 nm to the NNE of the center, and within 600 nm to the south of the center. High pressure E of Jacksonville FL will shift eastward slowly through Fri. Winds and seas will gradually diminish NE of the Bahamas through Fri morning. A cold front will move off NE Florida Fri evening, stall N of the Bahamas Sat then lift N of the area as a warm front Sun. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT