000 AXNT20 KNHC 290457 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1257 AM EDT Thu Mar 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean and relatively strong low pressure in northern parts of South America support winds pulsing to gale force, within 75 nm to 150 nm of the coast of Colombia. The gale force winds will recur each night during the evening and overnight hours, through Friday morning, while this surface weather pattern persists. Please read the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. This information also is found at the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Guinea near 09N13W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 01N30W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-05N between 16W- 28W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the coast of Brazil from 03S-01N between 39W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from a west Atlantic Ocean 1024 mb high near 30N74W, across N Bahamas, to the Yucatan Peninsula near 20N90W. The Gulf of Mexico has 15-20 kt SE surface flow. Seas are 8-10 ft over a large area of the W Gulf W of 90W. Scattered moderate convection is along the Texas coast from 27N-30N between 94W-97W due to a cold front approaching the coast. Scattered moderate to strong convection is also inland over E Texas and NW Louisiana with the potential for severe weather due to a squall line. The current surface ridge, from the W Atlantic Ocean into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, will maintain fresh-to-strong SE return flow through Thursday. The current Texas cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico tonight. Fresh-to-strong southerly winds will develop within 60 nm to the east of the front, and in the Louisiana adjacent waters on Thursday afternoon, continuing through the evening hours. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to Tampico on Friday afternoon, and then the front will stall across central Florida on Saturday morning while it weakens. High pressure building in the wake of the front will extend to southern Mexico and support fresh to near gale force winds in the western Bay of Campeche Thu night to Sat morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the gale warning for the coastal areas near Colombia. Seismic activity with undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W has steadily declined, and the alert level for mariners has returned to normal, with an exclusion zone of 1.5 km. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information. Scattered showers are over Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico, due to the remnants of a cold front. Surface high pressure, that is to the NE of Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas, will support fresh-to-strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through Saturday morning. The wind speeds will pulse to minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia each night through Friday morning. The latest scatterometer pass confirms a gale along the coast of N Colombia. Large N to NE swell will continue to propagate into the northern Caribbean Sea through Friday morning. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and on Thursday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 29/0300 UTC, the tail-end of a cold front extends from 32N52W to 26N55W. A 1014 mb low is further S near 22N56W. A surface trough extends from 25N55W to the low to 17N59W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm E of the front and trough. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 50W eastward. A surface ridge is along 35W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N22W SW of the Canary Islands. Scattered showers are SW and N of the Canary Islands. The cold front will move E Thu and be N of 32N Fri. The surface low and trough will remain quasi-stationary Thu and Fri then dissipate on Sat. Strong NE winds will affect the adjacent waters that are to the west of the central and southern Bahamas through early Fri, including the Atlantic Ocean approaches. Large north swell will impact the waters that are to the NE of the Bahamas through Fri morning. A new cold front will move off NE Florida early on Fri evening, stall N of the Bahamas on Sat, and lift N of the area as a warm front on Sat. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa