000 AXNT20 KNHC 281205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean and relatively strong low pressure in northern parts of South America support winds pulsing to gale force near the coast of Colombia. The gale force winds will recur each night during the evening and overnight hours, through Friday morning, while this surface weather pattern persists. Please read the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. This information also is found at the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W, crossing the Equator along 33W, to 01S46W at the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers, in a disorganized pattern, are from 07N southward from 53W eastward. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1026 mb high pressure center, that is near 32N78W, across south Florida and NW Cuba, to the Yucatan Peninsula. A developing frontal boundary is organizing itself in Texas at the moment. The current surface ridge, from the western Atlantic Ocean into the Gulf of Mexico, will maintain fresh to strong SE return flow through Thursday morning. The current Texas cold front will enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, and then it will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Friday. The front will weaken from central Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the gale warning for the coastal areas near Colombia. Seismic activity with undersea volcano Kick em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W has steadily declined, and the alert level for mariners has returned to normal, with an exclusion zone of 1.5 km. Please see www.nadma.gd for additional information. The SW part of a cold front passes through 20N70W, just to the north of Hispaniola, and the front reaches its endpoint across SE Cuba. Scattered to broken low level clouds and possible rainshowers cover the area that is from 17N northward between the Virgin Islands and 85W, including from 15N northward between 73W and 85W. High pressure, to the east of Jacksonville FL, will support fresh to strong trades in the south-central Caribbean Sea through Saturday. The wind speeds will pulse to minimal gale force near the coast of Colombia each night through Friday morning. Large N to NE swell will propagate into the Caribbean Sea through Friday morning. Fresh to strong winds will develop in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Thursday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N54W to 27N57W, curving to 20N70W, and eventually to SE Cuba. A surface trough is along 27N57W, curving to 22N60W, and to 17N60W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 18N northward between 50W and 60W. isolated moderate rainshowers from 18N southward between 55W and 61W. over the central Atlantic extends from 32N54W to 25N60W to 21N70W to E Cuba near 21N75W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the front N of 24N. Surface ridging covers the E Atlantic E of 50W, with axis along 35W. An upper level cyclonic circulation centered over the E Atlantic near 27N25W. Scattered showers are over the Canary Islands, northern Western Sahara, and southern Morocco. The current cold front that is along 20N, weakening with time, will push southward today and then weaken and dissipate near Puerto Rico by Thursday. Strong NE winds will affect the southern Bahamas, adjacent waters and Atlantic Ocean approaches through Friday. Large NE swell will impact the waters NE of the Bahamas through Friday morning. A new cold front will move off NE Florida on Friday afternoon, stall N of the Bahamas on Saturday morning, and then lift N of the area as a warm front on Saturday night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT