000 AXNT20 KNHC 280543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 143 AM EDT Wed Mar 28 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean and relatively strong low pressure in northern parts of South America support winds pulsing to gale force near the coast of Colombia. The gale force winds will recur each night during the evening and overnight hours, through Friday morning, while this surface weather pattern persists. Please read the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. This information also is found at the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 01N30W to Brazil near 01S46W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-04N between 14W-18W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-02N between 44W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1027 mb high centered over South Carolina near 34N80W extends a ridge axis to the Yucatan Peninsula. Most of the Gulf of Mexico has 15-25 kt SE flow with seas reaching 8 ft off the Texas coast. Radar imagery shows the entire Gulf of Mexico is void of precipitation. An upper level ridge is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along 88W. A strong surface ridge will maintain fresh-to-strong SE return flow through Thursday morning. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Thursday morning. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche on Friday morning, and then weaken from central Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday night. High pressure will build across the SE CONUS in the wake of the front, supporting NE moderate-to-fresh winds through Saturday morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the gale warning for the coastal areas near Colombia. Undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around Kick'em Jenny. Please refer to the web page, www.nadma.gd, for additional information. As of 28/0300 UTC the tail end of a cold front enters E Cuba near 21N75W and extends to central Cuba near 22N80W. The front is void of precipitation. A band of scattered showers are over the Virgin Islands and the northern Leeward Islands from 17N-20N between 61W-63W, moving E. The base of an upper level trough is over the central and eastern Caribbean Sea with axis along 65W. Strong subsidence is over the central Caribbean. High pressure in the SW N Atlantic Ocean will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through Saturday. The winds will pulse to near-gale force along the NW coast of Colombia each night through Friday morning. A gale is presently in effect until 28/1200 UTC. Large N to NE swells will propagate into NE Caribbean Sea passages from Tuesday night through Friday morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front over the central Atlantic extends from 32N54W to 25N60W to 21N70W to E Cuba near 21N75W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the front N of 24N. Surface ridging covers the E Atlantic E of 50W, with axis along 35W. An upper level cyclonic circulation is centered over the E Atlantic near 27N25W. Scattered showers are over the Canary Islands, northern Western Sahara, and southern Morocco. The current Atlantic cold front will drift eastward and weaken Wed night. A 1013 mb low will form over the central Atlantic near 26N54W Thu. This low will move towards the Leeward Islands near 21N58W Sat. A new cold front will move off NE Florida on Friday afternoon, then stall on Saturday morning before it lifts N of the area late on Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa