000 AXNT20 KNHC 280005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Tue Mar 27 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge in the western Atlantic Ocean and relatively strong low pressure in northern parts of South America support winds pulsing to gale force near the coast of Colombia. The gale force winds will recur each night during the evening and overnight hours, through Friday morning, while this surface weather pattern persists. Please read the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. This information also is found at the following website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from 04N17W to 01N30W to Brazil near 01S42W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-06N between 25W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... The tail end of a cold front extends from W Cuba near 23N80W to 25N83W. A surface trough continues to S Mississippi near 30N89W. Scattered to broken low level clouds are within 60 nm of the front and trough. Radar imagery shows the entire Gulf of Mexico is void of precipitation. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A strong surface ridge that extends from the western Atlantic Ocean into the western Gulf of Mexico will maintain fresh-to- strong SE return flow through Thursday morning. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf of Mexico on Thursday morning. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche on Friday morning, and then weaken from central Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday night. High pressure will build across the SE CONUS in the wake of the front, supporting NE moderate-to-fresh winds through Saturday morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the gale warning for the coastal areas near Colombia. Undersea volcano Kick'em Jenny, north of Grenada near 12.18N 61.38W, is in a state of unrest. The government of Grenada advises mariners to observe a 5 km or 3.1 nm exclusion zone around Kick'em Jenny. Please refer to the web page, www.nadma.gd, for additional information. A cold front enters central Cuba near 22N77W and extends to W Cuba near 23N80W and continues to the SE Gulf of Mexico. The front is void of precipitation. The southernmost point of a surface trough reaches N of Puerto Rico near 19N66W. Scattered showers are over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. An upper level trough passes through 20N68W to 15N71W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is moving across the southern half of the Bahamas, SE Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. High pressure in the SW N Atlantic Ocean will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through Saturday. The winds will pulse to near-gale force along the NW coast of Colombia each night through Friday morning. The next gale is to start 28/0300 UTC. Large N to NE swells will propagate into NE Caribbean Sea passages from Tuesday night through Friday morning. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N55W to 25N62W, 22N70W, to central Cuba near 22N77W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm SE of the front N of 24N. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area E of 51W. A 1032 mb high pressure center is near 38N19W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 26N27W, about 700 nm to the west of the coast of the Western Sahara. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 400 nm to 800 nm to the east of the cyclonic center, near the Canary Islands and in northern sections of the Western Sahara. The current Atlantic cold front will push southward across the Bahamas today, and it will be to the E of the area late on Wednesday night. Strong NE winds will affect the Bahamas and adjacent waters through tonight, and then the approaches of the Windward Passage through Friday. Large NE swell will impact the waters NE of the Bahamas through Friday morning. A cold front will move off NE Florida on Friday afternoon, then stall on Saturday morning before it lifts N of the area late on Saturday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa